乙二醇价格低位引发装置降负，短线价格有修复

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase. The spot price in East China remained flat at 3,900 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis (spot - futures) of +4 yuan/ton [2][50]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 30.79% to 177,363 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.45% to 289,511 lots, indicating a decline in market participation [2][37][38]. *** Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% and the oil - based operating rate at 76.23%. Coal - based profit improved significantly to 187 yuan/ton, a 66.34% increase, while losses in ethylene - based processes deepened [2][45][50]. - Demand Side: The load of downstream polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [2][3][50]. - Inventory Side: The inventory at the main ports in East China remained flat at 732,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, slightly increasing the port inventory pressure [3][50]. *** Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern. The reasons are as follows: the stable supply - side operating rate and the improvement in coal - based profit may support production willingness; the stable demand - side load supports the fundamentals; although there is a slight increase in Zhangjiagang's inventory, the overall inventory pressure is controllable. However, the expanding losses in oil - based production may limit the upside potential, and cost changes need to be monitored [50].