钢材&铁矿石日报：产业矛盾各异，钢矿强弱分化-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.13%. During the roll - over period, trading volume remained stable while open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation is still weak, putting pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.27%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, and demand has weakened, with weak fundamentals, putting pressure on the coil price. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly with a daily increase of 0.44%. Both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to rise, but ore demand is weakening, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the profit of state - holding enterprises was 1849.02 billion yuan, remaining flat year - on - year; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4432.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1484.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; and that of private enterprises was 1699.56 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9%. The mining industry's profit was 712.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 4505.03 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%; and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 732.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition. It pointed out that the problem of disorderly price competition in some industries is still prominent, and some enterprises fail to implement the requirements for standardizing price competition, and there are still behaviors disrupting the market price order. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition and maintain a good market price order [8]. - In October, the procurement costs of coking coal and iron ore varieties increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in coking coal; the costs of pig iron, scrap steel and alloy varieties decreased month - on - month. From January to October, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased significantly year - on - year, and the decline of major varieties narrowed compared with January - September. The weighted average procurement cost converted to dry basis in October was 1321.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 54.12 yuan/ton or 4.27%; the cumulative average procurement cost from January to October was 1257.28 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 573.84 yuan/ton or 31.34% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3210 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3289 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3290 yuan/ton and 3230 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the national average decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2980 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2080 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The coil - rebar price difference was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap price difference was 1130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 799 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 808 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.73 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/ton; from Brazil was 24.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.10 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 US dollars/ton [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume was 753,252 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the open interest was 1,069,617 lots, a decrease of 131,083 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume was 379,233 lots, an increase of 76,467 lots; the open interest was 876,319 lots, a decrease of 58,870 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 199,651 lots, a decrease of 2,318 lots; the open interest was 414,346 lots, a decrease of 5,496 lots [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][29] 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 1.88 tons month - on - month, with a slight contraction in supply. However, the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency daily trading has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry is weak, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.00 tons month - on - month, with supply rising at a high level and high inventory pressure. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 4.20 tons month - on - month, but it is still at a relatively high level. The contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and external demand improvement is limited, so demand resilience is likely to weaken. It is expected to continue the bottom - seeking through fluctuations, and attention should be paid to steel - mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and terminal ore consumption has declined. The average daily pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and combined with production - restriction disturbances, iron ore demand continues to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipment of overseas miners has decreased, but both are at high levels this year. External ore supply is positive, and domestic ore production is stable, with ore supply remaining at a high level. Short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, but demand is weakening, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].