银河期货花生日报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The 01 peanut contract has a limited rebound space due to the loose supply of oil - type peanuts [4][8]. 3. Summary by Section Part 1: Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 8102, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 35,546 (-19.32%) and an open interest of 21,413 (8.03%); PK510 closed at 8248, down 30 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 159 (-30.57%) and an open interest of 690 (0.58%); PK601 closed at 8186, unchanged, with a trading volume of 165,544 (-25.06%) and an open interest of 127,548 (-0.65%) [2]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.9 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.9 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.65 - 3.9 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 3.5 yuan/jin. The import prices of Sudan refined peanuts were 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese peanuts were 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts were 8000 yuan/ton [2][4]. - Price Difference: The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was -786, Shandong Jining and Linyi was -586. The price difference between PK01 - PK04 was 84 (up 24), PK04 - PK10 was -146 (up 6), and PK10 - PK01 was 62 (down 30) [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - Peanut Prices: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The supply increased, but the downstream demand was weak. The price difference between oil - type and commodity peanuts was large, and the price difference between Henan and Northeast common peanuts was at a high level [4][8]. - Peanut Oil and By - products: The purchase price of peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream price at 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price at 7900 yuan/ton. The price of peanut oil and soybean oil was stable, and the price of soybean meal in Rizhao increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3010 yuan/ton. The peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term [4][6]. Part 3: Trading Strategy - Single - side Strategy: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a low level. Short - sell 01 peanuts at high prices [9]. - Spread Strategy: Reverse - arbitrage the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [10]. - Option Strategy: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11]. Part 4: Related Charts - There are six charts including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, 10 - 1 contract spread, and 1 - 4 contract spread [13][17][20].