煤焦日报：多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke: On November 27, the main coke contract closed at 1,607 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.03%. The position of the main contract was 33,300 lots, a decrease of 1,839 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled, weakening the cost support for coke, and the main futures contract is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the actual supply of coking coal [6][34]. - Coking Coal: On November 27, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,071 points, with an intraday decrease of 0.19%. The position of the main contract was 452,300 lots, a decrease of 24,098 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Since the safety production annual assessment and inspection work started in November, the production of coking coal has increased instead of decreasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has accelerated. The supply support for coking coal has weakened, and the main futures contract has continued to correct. However, considering that the coal mine production may decline after reaching the annual production target and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. This heating season, the energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and the resource supply is guaranteed. The NDRC will take multiple measures to increase resource production and supply and ensure people's warm winter [8]. - On November 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,580 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,670 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 yuan/ton | - 1.35% | - 5.81% | - 9.88% | - 13.61% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,280 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 7.91% | 8.47% | - 5.19% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,580 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | - 4.82% | 6.04% | - 3.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,790 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.87% | 16.99% | 5.29% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,607.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | 1,630.0 yuan/ton | 1,589.5 yuan/ton | 15,806 | - 9,815 | 33,313 lots | - 1,839 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 1,071.0 points | - 0.19% | 1,088.0 points | 1,066.5 points | 457,821 | - 250,769 | 452,336 lots | - 24,098 lots | [13] Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][19]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal over the years [20][23][25]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [27][29][33]. Market Outlook The analysis and judgments on coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the weak and volatile state of coke futures due to the cooling supply expectation of coking coal and the uncertain downward trend of coking coal futures considering year - end production and the Politburo meeting [34].