ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-11-27 10:34Core Insights - The report indicates that market volatility is driven by fluctuations in win rates rather than a complete reversal, suggesting that the index is expected to remain in a state of oscillation [5][6] - The overall market liquidity remains ample, with margin financing balances at 2.46 trillion yuan, placing it in the 97.5th percentile over the past three years [3] - The report highlights that the recent market decline reflects a phase of win rate logic fluctuations, primarily influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and concerns over AI-related debt [3][4] Market Analysis - The technology sector continues to face adjustments primarily due to expectation volatility, with the AI industry chain experiencing high valuations and limited upside potential [4] - Defensive demand and a slight recovery in domestic inflation are benefiting dividend and cyclical styles, as indicated by a 0.2% year-on-year increase in October CPI, marking the first positive change in four months [4] - The report notes that the win rate logic has not shifted, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory remaining below expectations, while the U.S. economy may require further rate cuts [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on sectors with lower crowding within technology, such as gaming and media, while also recommending global pricing resources like gold and copper due to the backdrop of overseas rate cuts and fiscal expansion [6] - The December stock selection includes a mix of ETFs and individual stocks across various sectors, emphasizing a defensive strategy amid market oscillation [9][10]