有色金属日内回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated with a continuous increase in open interest. There was significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan domestically. The strengthening US dollar index during the day pressured copper prices. In the industry, there was a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas marginal inventory accumulation and domestic marginal inventory reduction. The spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 11,000 - dollar mark for LME copper [5]. - 沪铝: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The strengthening US dollar index cooled the short - term bullish sentiment in the market, leading to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the industry, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, providing support for futures prices. Since this week, aluminum prices have rebounded slightly, but open interest has continued to decline, indicating reduced capital attention. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 21,500 - yuan mark [6]. - 沪镍: Today, the main futures price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 117,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel decreased slightly. The rebound of the US dollar led to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the industry, the spot premium of nickel continued to strengthen, providing support for futures prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: European industry players have stated that if the export of scrap metals (copper and aluminum) is unrestricted, Europe may face a shortage of smelting raw materials, affecting the production and supply of semi - finished products. Some have called for expanding export restrictions to the scrap copper sector [9]. - Aluminum: On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10]. - Nickel: As of November 27, on the supply side, while the supply remained stable, upstream iron plants still had no zero - order quotes, showing a strong willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, there was continuous release of downstream procurement demand during the week, with the transaction focus concentrated at 880 yuan per nickel point. However, although the buying was more active, terminal consumption remained weak, and market pessimism persisted. Overall, there was oversupply, and the price of high - nickel pig iron remained under pressure in the short term [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - Aluminum: The related charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - Nickel: The charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].