沥青日报：震荡下行-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase as some refineries will stabilize production, while the demand will weaken further with the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt scheduled production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The asphalt shipments in the Northeast increased significantly due to increased production and price cuts, and the national shipments increased 15.28% to 246,000 tons week-on-week, at a slightly below - average level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under US military threats [1]. - This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate will rise. With the temperature drop in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will weaken further. The project increments in the south are limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3,007 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,003 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,040 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,170 to 154,449 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 7 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to August 2025 but remained negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].