原油日报：原油低开后震荡上行-20251127

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, market concerns about crude oil demand, accelerated production increases by OPEC+, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in crude oil. However, it is difficult to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on November 30th, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly reduce the pressure in Q1 2026. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US refined oil inventory according to EIA data, and an increase in net imports have led to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are difficulties in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 442.8 yuan/ton and a high of 448.1 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,687 to 36,011 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA将2026年美国原油产量上调20万桶/日至1350万桶/日。OPEC月报将第三季度全球石油短缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，将2026年全球石油短缺5万桶/日调整为过剩2万桶/日。OPEC月报将2025年全球原油需求增速预测维持在130万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速预测维持在138万桶/日。IEA年度《世界能源展望》中预测石油需求可能将持续增长至2050年，而IEA此前预计全球石油需求将在2030年见顶。IEA月报将2025年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至310万桶/日，将2026年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至250万桶/日；将2025年全球原油需求增速上调7.8万桶/日至78.8万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速上调7.1万桶/日至77万桶/日 [3] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - On the evening of November 26th, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21st, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of November 21st decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near its historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year; diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. Although diesel demand decreased significantly, the increase in gasoline and other oil products led to a 0.41% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]