Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, PVC is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the end of production enterprise maintenance, high - level futures warehouse receipts, limited boost from India's policy cancellation, price drops in Formosa Plastics' December quotes, and the decline of coking coal futures prices suppressing market sentiment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate continues to decline slightly, still at a low level. India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about China's PVC exports to India, and anti - dumping duties are likely to be cancelled. Last week's export orders increased month - on - month. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes generally dropped by 30 - 60 US dollars/ton. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased month - on - month but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The improvement of the real estate industry still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. There are new production capacities, and the PVC industry lacks actual policy implementation [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4473 yuan/ton, the highest was 4520 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4517 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.71%. The position volume decreased by 35,230 lots to 1,192,419 lots [2] Basis - On November 27, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4445 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: After the maintenance of devices such as Shandong Xinfa ended, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. There are new production capacities, such as Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line that has been in mass production since August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production line that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year production lines operating at low loads after trial runs [4] - Demand side: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The commercial housing sales area was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the residential sales area decreased by 7.0%. The commercial housing sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the new construction area of residential houses was 359.52 million square meters, a decrease of 19.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completion area of houses was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; the completion area of residential houses was 248.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The overall improvement of the real estate industry still needs time. As of the week of November 23, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of November 20, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, a 23.47% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still at a high level [6]
PVC日报：震荡运行-20251127
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-27 10:54