Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main fluctuation range between RMB 95,000 and RMB 100,000 per ton. The stable supply restricts the upside space, while the demand is supported by new energy vehicle sales growth and good cell production scheduling. However, the downstream's rigid - demand - based procurement and strong wait - and - see sentiment, along with the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, may suppress price breakthroughs. Meanwhile, continuous inventory reduction provides bottom support [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Main Contract and Basis: On November 26, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, showing a slight increase. The basis was - RMB 5,140 per ton, weaker than the previous value of - RMB 4,200 per ton by RMB 940, indicating an expanded spot - futures price difference and a relatively weak spot market [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract reached 478,054 lots, a significant increase of 134,855 lots or 39.29% from the previous value of 343,199 lots. The trading volume was reported at 810,231 lots, a substantial increase of 298,952 lots or 58.47% from the previous value of 511,279 lots [1]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, the same as on November 14. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. Lithium salt plants were operating at a high - level capacity, with spodumene and salt - lake sources as the main supply sources. It is expected that the November output will be flat month - on - month, and the overall supply is stable [2]. - Demand Side: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, 2025, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 2% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month, and the wholesale sales increased by 1% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The downstream cell prices increased slightly. The power and energy storage markets had strong demand, and cell production scheduling was positive [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7% from 120,472 physical tons on November 14 [2]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From November 25 to November 26, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from RMB 95,400 per ton to RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99%. The basis weakened from - RMB 4,200 per ton to - RMB 5,140 per ton. The position increased from 343,199 lots to 478,054 lots, up 134,855 lots or 39.29%, and the trading volume increased from 511,279 lots to 810,231 lots, up 298,952 lots or 58.47%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at RMB 91,200 per ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from RMB 160,500 per ton to RMB 163,000 per ton, up RMB 2,500 or 1.56%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from RMB 143,950 per ton to RMB 144,150 per ton, up RMB 200 or 0.14%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from RMB 38,925 per ton to RMB 39,110 per ton, up RMB 185 or 0.48% [5]. - From November 14 to November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%. The inventory decreased from 120,472 physical tons to 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from RMB 4.54 per piece to RMB 4.64 per piece, up RMB 0.1 or 2.2%. The price of 523 square ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.50 per Wh. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.52 per Wh. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.34 per Wh. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased from RMB 7.35 per Ah to RMB 7.45 per Ah, up RMB 0.1 or 1.36% [5]. 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On November 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was RMB 93,415 per ton, up RMB 953 per ton from the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 90,000 - 95,600 per ton, with an average of RMB 92,800 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 88,800 - 92,000 per ton, with an average of RMB 90,400 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures showed a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main contract switched to 2605, and the futures price mainly fluctuating between RMB 95,300 and RMB 99,900 per ton. The downstream material factories' procurement willingness returned to a wait - and - see attitude after a brief recovery, and the procurement was still mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating next year's long - term agreements, mainly focusing on the coefficient [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 554,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 1,070.3 million units, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 618,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 1,267.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - Industry News: On November 21, according to "Longyan Release", the project of Sanwei (Longyan) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. was officially launched in the Gaopi area of Longyan High - tech Zone (Economic Development Zone), Fujian Province. The project, with a total investment of RMB 580 million, is expected to have an annual production capacity of 1 GWh of three - dimensional solid - state lithium batteries and an annual output value exceeding RMB 1.2 billion [9].
碳酸锂日报：碳酸锂去库速度放缓，基差修复后高位再等新驱动-20251127
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-27 10:57