聚酯链日报：TA供应压力压制价格弹性，上行动力不足-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The supply pressure of TA suppresses price elasticity, and there is insufficient upward momentum. The future prices of PX and PTA are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand exacerbating the risk of oversupply, and inventory is likely to shift from differentiation to a general upward pressure [2][6]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - PTA & PX: On November 26, the PX main contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 235.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,684.0 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 54.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 58.11 dollars/barrel. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average trading volume of 697.2 million meters [2]. - Supply Side: If there is no significant change in PX devices, the operating rate is expected to remain high. With stable crude oil prices, there is continuous cost support, which may support the upward movement of PX prices. The operation of PTA devices may be stable, but the strong upward trend of upstream PX indirectly increases PTA costs. If the device operating rate remains high, supply pressure still exists, which may suppress the increase [3]. - Demand Side: The trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased to 679.0 million meters (lower than the 15 - day average of 697.2 million meters), reflecting a slowdown in textile consumption and implying weak polyester demand. If the polyester operating rate follows the decline, it will directly weaken the support on the demand side of PTA, and the weak demand may further drag down the overall trend [4]. - Inventory Side: The risk of PTA factory inventory accumulation is expected to increase. Weak demand combined with a negative PTA main contract basis (- 54.0 yuan/ton) indicates that the market anticipates future supply to be loose or inventory pressure to increase. If the demand side does not improve, the pressure on the inventory side will strengthen the expectation of price decline. The deep negative basis of PX (- 235.0 yuan/ton) implies tight spot supply but cautious expectations for future inventory [5]. - Polyester: On November 26, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,264.0 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 36.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15 moving average) decreased from 716.4 million meters to 697.2 million meters, indicating a continuous weakening of downstream textile demand. The inventory status is differentiated, but weak demand may lead to inventory accumulation. It is predicted that the future prices of the industrial chain (PX and PTA) will continue to decline [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 20.41%, and the open interest decreased by 1.88%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.50%. The PX basis decreased by 31.28% [8]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,684 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 10.52%, and the open interest decreased by 0.50%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 107.69%, and the import profit increased by 0.33% [8]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,264 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 5.69%, and the open interest decreased by 3.51%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged, and the PF basis decreased by 45.45% [8]. - Other Products: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and some other products showed different degrees of change, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, and some polyester products remained unchanged [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Macro - dynamics: On November 26, a Fed official in Milan believed that the economy needed significant interest rate cuts. On November 25, Fed official Daly supported a December interest rate cut, the market had the view of delaying the December interest - rate meeting, the probability of a December Fed interest rate cut rose to 80%, and the Israeli central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Zelensky said that the list of steps to end the conflict was approaching feasibility [10]. - Supply - demand (Demand): On November 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 679.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 550.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 131.0 million meters [12].