银河期货甲醇日报-20251127

Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View The methanol market continues to oscillate. The international device operating rate has declined, and some devices in Iran have shut down due to gas restrictions. The port inventory has decreased, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is stable, and the inland MTO operation is stable. The price of methanol in the inland area is relatively firm recently. The impact of domestic commodities' wide - range oscillation on methanol futures has weakened [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The futures market showed a strong oscillation, closing at 2114 (+25/+1.2%). The spot market had different quotes in various regions, with production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Guanzhong, and consumption areas like Shandong and Hebei having their respective prices, and ports including Taicang, Ningbo, and Guangzhou also showing different levels [2]. Important Information - From November 21 - 27, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The profit of coal - based methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply remains abundant. The import price in US dollars has rebounded, and the import profit margin has continued to expand. The external market's operating rate has increased at a high level [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices operating stably or at partial loads [4]. - Inventory: The port's inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Close short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]