银河期货尿素日报-20251127

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on November 27, 2025 [2] - Report Subject: Urea market in the commodity research field [1] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1668 (+19/+1.15%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory - gate prices increased, but trading weakened. Different regions had different price ranges, e.g., Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output on November 27: 20.34 tons, flat compared to the previous workday and 1.13 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, 0.9% lower than 85.00% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Mainstream Region Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory - gate price was weakly stable, with cooling market sentiment; in Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the price was expected to run weakly; in the delivery area and surrounding regions, the price was firm, and it was expected to remain stable [5] - Supply and Demand Analysis: Supply increased as maintenance devices returned, with daily output reaching around 20.4 tons. Demand was affected by the fourth - batch quota release. Domestic demand was limited, with复合肥 production in central and northern China ending and low - level stocking finishing [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, urea was expected to be range - bound; in the medium term, it was expected to run weakly as the impact of the export quota faded and overall demand was weak [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go short at high levels, but do not chase the short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts include data on urea daily output, operating rate, production, inventory, and other related indicators from 2022 - 2025, with data sources from Longzhong, Zhuochuang, and Galaxy Futures [10][13]