银河期货农产品日报-20251127

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily in the Agricultural Products R & D Report on November 27, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The Fuji apple price index is 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous workday; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.31, up 0.22 [2] - The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 is 4.15, unchanged; the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 is unavailable; the price of Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 is 3.75, unchanged; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 is 2.40, unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01 is 9529, down 2 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 9612, up 70; AP10 is 8400, up 10 [2] - AP01 - AP05 is - 83, down 72; AP05 - AP10 is 1212, up 60; AP10 - AP01 is - 1129, up 12 [2] Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 is unavailable [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations are that the cold - storage inventory data will likely be low. As of November 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7642400 tons, an increase of 658100 tons from last week, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year, a decline of 10.59% [6] - It is likely that this year's cold - storage apple inventory peak will be lower than last year, and the apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is expected to be low. The apple fundamentals are strong, but considering the large fluctuations at the current position of the futures market, it is recommended to exit and wait and see [6] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: The apple fundamentals are strong, but there have been large recent fluctuations. It is recommended to exit and wait and see [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9] Other Information - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 108100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [8] - Yesterday, the transaction price in the origin was stable. In the Shandong production area, small and medium - sized fruits were traded in the cold storage, and the trading volume of other specifications was small. In the Northwest production area, there were not many cold - storage speculators, and the current transactions were mainly for market customers. Merchants concentrated on purchasing in the Xianyang and Gansu production areas, and the trading volume in the Weinan and northern Shaanxi areas was small. The market arrivals increased slightly, overall stable, and the mainstream price was stable [8] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apple cold - storage goods above 70 in Luochuan, Yan'an, Shaanxi is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The cold - storage transactions are average, merchants mainly pack their own goods, and the procurement volume has decreased [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, and national cold - storage apple inventory [11][14][17][19][26]