棉花、棉纱日报-20251127

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [2]. - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2]. - Price spreads, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, are given, along with their price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 24, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 100%, with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and the same as last year. The picking progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang was also about 100% [4]. - From November 20 to 26, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas was 0.3mm, lower than normal and last year. The cumulative rainfall from October 1 to November 26 was 106.6mm, higher than normal. With little precipitation this week, the listing pace of cotton in India accelerated [5]. Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated stronger, and cotton yarn futures fluctuated similarly. The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little, with spinning mills mainly selling on a just - in - time basis. High - count combed yarns had good sales, while other varieties had a dull trading atmosphere. Affected by weak downstream demand, cotton yarn prices were slow to rise, the cotton - yarn price spread narrowed, and spinning mills' confidence and willingness to start production declined [8][9]. - The quantity and price of all - cotton clothing grey fabrics continued to decline. Weaving factories are waiting for spring and summer orders, but their inventory is rising, and some may sell at reduced prices before the Spring Festival [9]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 7.2%, 11.9%, and 18.4% respectively. The 10 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.6924, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.5785. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13].