铜日报：电解铜价高位震荡，需求疲软抑制进一步上行空间-20251127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, driven by cost support on the supply side and improved macro - sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 86,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The SHFE price of the main contract rose slightly to 86,620 yuan/ton on November 26, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The basis of premium copper and flat - water copper increased slightly, while the LME(0 - 3) basis weakened to 9.52 US dollars/ton [1][56] - Position and Trading Volume: Market procurement sentiment slightly increased on November 26, trading volume slightly expanded, and there was no significant change in position data [1][57] Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Chile's national copper company significantly raised the long - term contract price for 2026 to 350 US dollars/ton on November 26, reflecting rising supply costs. The Tibet Yulong Copper Project was put into operation on November 22, increasing the annual processing capacity of copper oxide ore to 1 million tons. The Australian Eva Copper Project was approved and is expected to be put into production in 2028, increasing future supply [2][57] - Demand Side: Downstream consumption in North China was weak on November 26. Limited funds at the end of the month led to poor demand. Although the overall procurement sentiment slightly increased, downstream price - pressing psychology was obvious [2][57] - Inventory Side: LME inventory continued to decline to 39,825 tons on November 26, a decrease of about 9.1% compared to November 20. SHFE inventory slightly increased to 156,575 tons, and COMEX inventory increased [2][57] Price Trend Judgment - Future Trend: It is expected that the copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks [3][57] - Driving Reasons: On the supply side, the rising long - term contract price and future project commissioning imply rising costs and increased supply; on the demand side, weak downstream consumption and price - pressing psychology limit demand recovery; macro - sentiment is supported by the Fed's dovish remarks on November 26, which weakened the US dollar and supported risk assets including copper prices [58][59][60]