山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with platinum and palladium soaring and then falling back. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.14%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 3.35%, the main contract of platinum closed up 6.25%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 1.53% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists [1]. - The results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still remain [1]. - Speeches by Federal Reserve officials have increased the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December to soar to around 80% [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. The hydrogen energy industry is expected to drive long - term strong demand for platinum - based catalysts, while palladium faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, strong platinum and weak palladium in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Recently, the net long position of CFTC silver has been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. The visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.14%, Comex gold main contract closed at $4196.10 per ounce, up 0.74% from the previous day and 2.89% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4139.60 per ounce, up 0.32% from the previous day and 0.31% from the previous week [1][2]. - Price and Related Data: Domestic prices, such as the main contract of Shanghai Gold on the SHFE and gold T + D on the SGE, also showed certain increases. There were changes in basis, spreads, and ratios. For example, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai Gold was - 4.03 yuan/gram, and the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 78.88, down 3.31% from the previous day [2]. - Position and Inventory: Comex gold positions were 485,788 hands, and Shanghai Gold main contract positions increased by 3.70% from the previous day and 27.73% from the previous week. Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week, and the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 0.33% from the previous week [2]. - Net Position Ranking: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Gold futures company members on the SHFE, the top 5 totaled 67,680.00, and among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,510.00 [3]. - Strategy: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. 3.2 Silver - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 3.35%, Comex silver main contract closed at $53.76 per ounce, up 3.88% from the previous day and 5.28% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.48 per ounce, up 2.49% from the previous day and 0.54% from the previous week [1][5]. - Price and Related Data: Domestic prices, such as the main contract of Shanghai Silver on the SHFE and silver T + D on the SGE, also increased. There were changes in basis and spreads. For example, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai Silver was 20 yuan/kg [5]. - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions were 172,415 hands, and Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased by 11.09% from the previous day and 22.42% from the previous week. The visible inventory of silver decreased slightly, with a total visible inventory of 41,736 tons, down 0.09% from the previous day and 0.61% from the previous week [5]. - Net Position Ranking: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Silver futures company members on the SHFE, the top 5 totaled 110,211.00, and among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 58,699.00 [6]. - Strategy: For silver, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,061.83 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week [7]. - Macroeconomic Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37%, down 2.07% from the previous day and 3.27% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.58, down 0.22% from the previous day and 0.54% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.47, up 30.56% from the previous week [7]. - Inflation Data: The CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and the core CPI (year - on - year) is also 3.00% [9]. - Economic Growth Data: The GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30% from the previous period; the GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, up 4.40% from the previous period [9]. - Employment Data: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million, up 1.23 million from the previous period [9]. - Other Data: There are also data on the US real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as central bank gold reserves and related ratios [9][11].