银河期货煤炭日报-20251127

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Coal Daily Report, dated November 27, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao, with从业资格号 F3068848 and investment consulting资格证号 Z0017786 [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] - Data Source: Galaxy Futures [6] Group 2: Market Review - On November 27, the port market showed a weak downward trend, with the price ranges of major coal types generally moving down and the trading atmosphere being cold [2] - The quoted prices of 5500 - kcal, 5000 - kcal, and 4500 - kcal coal in different regions are provided, including ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports [2] Group 3: Important News - From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, setting a record high for the same period; the average daily loading was 186,000 wagons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis Supply - The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 26, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, and the domestic supply is becoming more abundant [4] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on China's demand [4] Demand - This week, the demand performance is mediocre. China's procurement demand has weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement is average, and India's procurement demand has not improved [4] - The recent cold snap has significantly affected power demand, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has increased significantly. In the next 10 days, cold air activities will be frequent, and the heating power demand is expected to further increase, with the daily consumption of downstream power plants likely to continue rising [4] Inventory - Railway transportation has returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30 trains. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 26, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period [4] - The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, while the inventory of inland power plants is at a medium level [4] Overall Situation - In late November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin are stable, with a daily average output of around 4.2 million tons, and the supply is tightening [4] - The inventory of power plants is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, the procurement intensity of coastal power plants has weakened, the port inflow is high, the outflow is low, and the port inventory has increased rapidly [4] - Currently, the temperature across the country is relatively high, the daily consumption of power plants is hovering at a low level, and the coal consumption is average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants is lower than that of the same period, and they continue to make rigid - demand purchases. The port FOB price has weakly corrected [4] - After the safety supervision at the mine mouth is lifted, the coal mine operating rate increases, the output increases, the demand for chemical coal is acceptable, and the mine - mouth price has weakly declined. It is expected that the coal price will be weak in the short term [4]