华夏华润有巢 REIT（508077.SH）扩募价值深度分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expected fair - value range of the Youchao Maqiao project is between RMB 828 million and RMB 1.039 billion, with a difference of - 16.32% to 5.05% compared to the disclosed appraisal value [2]. - After the expansion, the neutral Cap Rate of China Resources Youchao REIT in 2025 is expected to reach 3.37%, second only to Chengtou Kuanting and China Merchants Shekou Leasing. The neutral IRR is expected to be 4.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase compared to before the expansion [2]. - The predicted distribution yields of China Resources Youchao REIT after the expansion in 2025 and 2026 are 3.30% and 3.34% respectively, which are 4.96% and 6.50% higher than before the expansion, and 11.00% and 15.63% higher than comparable REITs [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basic Issuance Elements - The expansion of China Resources Youchao REIT was registered and became effective on October 28, 2025. A fund - holder meeting is scheduled from November 15 to 28, 2025, to vote on matters such as the expansion, adjustment of fund management fees, and extension of the fund contract [6]. - The expansion will be sold by allotment to original holders, with a planned issuance of no more than 550 million shares, and a planned issuance scale of RMB 991.5 million to RMB 1.14 billion. The expected issuance price per share is between RMB 1.803 and RMB 2.073 [6][8]. - A negative - incentive mechanism has been added to the incentive service fee, and the upper limit of positive and negative incentives is set. When the actual net operating income is lower than the target, the corresponding amount of the basic service fee will be deducted [7]. 3.2 Introduction to Underlying Basic Assets 3.2.1 Scattered Rental Supply in Maqiao, AI Industry Drives Demand Growth - The Youchao Maqiao project is a single - building affordable rental housing project in Minhang District, Shanghai, with a total construction area of 107,230.20 square meters, which opened in March 2023 [10]. - The rental housing supply in Maqiao is mainly scattered, and community - type supply is scarce. The "Two Old and One Village" renovation during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will supply over 7,400 affordable rental housing units and 3,000 beds [12]. - The project is close to the Shanghai AI Pilot Zone and high - tech manufacturing belt. New enterprises' settlement will drive the rental demand. As of the end of 2024, the rental population in Shanghai accounted for 40% of the permanent population, and the potential demand for affordable rental housing exceeded 4.5 million units [13]. 3.2.2 Mainly One - Bedroom Units with Various Types, Rich Community Services through Government - Enterprise Collaboration - The project has 2,483 rental housing units (2,475 available for rent), mainly one - bedroom units, supplemented by two - bedroom and one - room - one - hall units. There are also dormitory units for front - line workers [16]. - The project has a short opening time, high - quality decoration, and a rich community ecosystem. It has indoor and outdoor shared spaces, commercial facilities on the ground floor, and 776 underground parking spaces [22]. - The project is close to Metro Line 5, with a bus stop at the entrance and shuttle - bus service. It has jointly built community service stations such as canteens with the government [22]. 3.2.3 Obvious Rent Advantage, Poor Commercial and Public Transport Facilities - Compared with three comparable projects within 5 kilometers, the Youchao Maqiao project has a larger housing supply. The monthly rent of its one - bedroom units is between RMB 1,500 and RMB 2,800, lower than that of comparable projects [23]. - The commercial and public - transport facilities of comparable projects are more complete. The main customer groups of the project are similar to those of comparable projects, mainly white - collar workers in surrounding industrial parks and along the subway line, and also include front - line workers due to the dormitory units [24]. 3.2.4 Backed by Well - known Real - Estate Developer China Resources Land, Leading in Apartment Management among Central Enterprises - The original equity holder of China Resources Youchao REIT is Youchao Housing Leasing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., whose sole controlling shareholder is China Resources Land Holdings Co., Ltd. [26]. - As of the end of June 2025, Youchao Shenzhen was involved in 51 operating projects in 15 cities, with 18 reserve projects and 85,000 housing units, ranking first among central enterprises in apartment management [29]. - Due to high initial investment, Youchao Shenzhen has not yet achieved profitability. However, its gross profit margin has been increasing year by year, reaching 16.12% in the first half of 2025 [32]. 3.3 Operating Conditions of Underlying Basic Assets 3.3.1 Entered Stable Operation Stage, Profit Margin Lower than Comparable Projects - From 2022 to 2024 and the first half of 2025, the operating income of the Youchao Maqiao project increased year by year, reaching RMB 29.4424 million in the first half of 2025. The net profit turned positive in 2024 [38]. - In 2023, the net profit was negative due to low rental income during the climbing period and high costs. Since 2024, as the project entered the stable operation stage, the operating income and EBITDA increased significantly, and the net profit turned positive [38]. - From 2024 to the first half of 2025, the profit margin of China Resources Youchao REIT (expansion) was lower than the average of comparable REITs and the initial - offering assets [43]. 3.3.2 High Occupancy Rate after Climbing, Stable Rent Collection Rate above 99% - From 2023 to 2024 and the first half of 2025, the weighted average occupancy rate of the Youchao Maqiao project was 38.2%, 90.6%, and 92.9% respectively. Since 2024, the occupancy rate has been stable and above 90% [46]. - The occupancy rate of China Resources Youchao REIT (expansion) at the end of 2024 and the first half of 2025 was higher than the average of comparable REITs and the initial - offering assets [53]. - The rent collection rate of China Resources Youchao REIT (expansion) at the end of 2024 and the first half of 2025 was higher than the average of comparable REITs and the initial - offering assets [55]. 3.3.3 High Cost - Performance Rent for One - Bedroom and Dormitory Units, Decline in New - Signed Rent for One - Bedroom Units in H1 2025 - As of June 30, 2025, the average contract rent per square meter of the Youchao Maqiao project was RMB 69.80, a 37.12% discount compared to the market average [57]. - The rent of one - bedroom and dormitory units in the project has an obvious advantage compared to the surrounding area. However, the new - signed rent for all housing types in the first half of 2025 decreased by 0.32% compared to the end of 2024, especially for the main one - bedroom units [58][62]. - The rent - discount policy covers most tenants, and the total discount amount accounts for about 19% of the rent income [63]. 3.3.4 Customer Groups Targeted at Surrounding Industrial Parks, Enterprise Tenants Mainly from Research Institutions - As of June 30, 2025, the rental - area ratio of individual and enterprise tenants in the Youchao Maqiao project was 80.86% and 19.14% respectively [64]. - Among enterprise tenants, research and technology service institutions accounted for the highest proportion. The top five enterprise tenants accounted for 8.57% of the rental area and 9.41% of the rent income [64][65]. - Among individual tenants, nearly 60% work within 5 kilometers of the project. Benefiting from talent introduction, the proportion of tenants with a postgraduate degree or above is 43% [69]. 3.3.5 Continuous Optimization of Lease - Term Structure, Faster Vacancy Filling and Higher Renewal Rate - The lease terms of the Youchao Maqiao project are generally one - year. As of June 30, 2025, the average lease term was 11.45 months, and the leases with terms of 12 and 13 months accounted for 78.02% [72]. - The overall renewal rate in the first half of 2025 exceeded 40%, and the average vacancy - filling time in 2024 and the first half of 2025 was 24.92 days and 18.85 days respectively [72]. 3.4 Valuation Analysis 3.4.1 Expected Fair Value of Youchao Maqiao Project between RMB 828 million and RMB 1.039 billion - Under the neutral scenario, it is assumed that from 2025 to 2034, the rent growth rate, occupancy rate, and rent collection rate of the Youchao Maqiao project are set according to different stages [78][79][80]. - The expected fair - value range of the project is between RMB 828 million and RMB 1.039 billion, with a difference of - 16.32% to 5.05% compared to the disclosed appraisal value of RMB 989 million [99]. 3.4.2 Neutral IRR after Asset Combination is 4.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point Increase compared to before the Expansion - Under the neutral scenario, the IRR of the Youchao Maqiao project is 5.14%, and the overall IRR after asset combination is 4.80%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase compared to before the expansion [100]. - Before the expansion, the IRR of China Resources Youchao REIT was second only to Chengtou Kuanting. After the expansion, it is higher than all affordable - rental - housing REITs [101]. 3.4.3 Capitalization Rate in 2025 after Asset Combination is 3.37%, a 0.2 - percentage - point Increase compared to before the Expansion - Under the neutral scenario, the capitalization rates of the Youchao Maqiao project in 2025 and 2026 are 3.64% and 3.71% respectively. The overall capitalization rates after asset combination are 3.37% and 3.51% respectively, with an increase of 0.20 and 0.15 percentage points compared to before the expansion [103]. - Before the expansion, the capitalization rate of China Resources Youchao REIT was at a medium level. After the expansion, it is second only to Chengtou Kuanting and China Merchants Shekou Leasing [104]. 3.4.4 Distribution Yield in 2025 after Asset Combination is 3.30%, a 5% Increase compared to before the Expansion - The expected distribution yields of the Youchao Maqiao project in 2025 and 2026 are 3.51% - 4.03% and 3.61% - 4.15% respectively. The overall expected distribution yields after asset combination are 3.30% - 3.49% and 3.34% - 3.53% respectively, with an increase of 4.96% - 11.13% and 6.50% - 12.77% compared to before the expansion [108]. - After the expansion, the predicted distribution yields of China Resources Youchao REIT in 2025 and 2026 are 11.00% - 17.54% and 15.63% - 22.44% higher than those of comparable affordable - rental - housing REITs [108].