Haitong Securities International·2025-11-27 11:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a NEUTRAL rating for Li Auto with a target price of HK$81.34, reflecting a current price of HK$71.70 [2][6]. Core Insights - The one-off recall has disrupted quarterly earnings, but there is potential for a rapid recovery in Q4. The company reported a revenue of RMB 27.4 billion for Q3 2025, down 36% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 25.9 billion [3][10]. - Li Auto is focusing on the 2026 facelifted L series as a growth driver, aiming to reclaim its leadership in the extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) segment. The company has started deliveries of the i6/i8 battery electric vehicle (BEV) models, enhancing its market presence [4][11]. - An organizational restructuring has been implemented to enhance decision-making speed and operational resilience, shifting back to a startup-style management approach [5][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 111.6 billion, RMB 122.0 billion, and RMB 136.8 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 14%, 28%, and 33% [6][13]. - The report indicates a non-GAAP net loss of RMB 360 million for Q3 2025, but underlying profitability is expected to return in Q4 2025 [3][10]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 16.3%, with an underlying margin of 20.4% when excluding the recall impact [3][10].