国投期货化工日记

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hexanediol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows a weak trend, with acrylene price rising but facing constraints, and plastic and polypropylene in a bearish pattern [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market is in an oscillatory state, with pure benzene likely to oscillate and styrene maintaining a low - level range [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA following cost - driven logic, and other products having their own supply - demand characteristics [4]. - The coal - chemical market has methanol in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and urea may return to a stalemate after a short - term rise [5]. - The chlor - alkali market has PVC and caustic soda in an oscillatory state, with PVC likely to operate in a low - level range and caustic soda running weakly [6]. - The soda ash - glass market has soda ash in an oversupply situation in the long - term and glass expected to oscillate strongly, and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Acrylene futures fluctuate weakly around the 5 - day moving average. Supply in Shandong is tight, pushing up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Polyethylene has stable domestic supply and weakening demand, while polypropylene downstream has low inventory - building willingness [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are under pressure due to weakening gasoline crack spreads, high arrival expectations, and falling demand, but may oscillate due to future device maintenance [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply - demand structure improves slightly, and profit is repaired, but the price may continue to oscillate [3]. Polyester - PX short - term supply - demand weakens, but is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [4]. - Hexanediol supply improves marginally, with limited medium - term rebound space. Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and bottle chip demand fades [4]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are strong, but high imports and potential MTO shutdowns may limit the upside [5]. - Urea prices rise in the short - term due to concentrated demand release, but may return to a stalemate as the demand boost is not sustainable [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillates. Export may improve, and prices may stop falling, but high inventory pressure remains [6]. - Caustic soda oscillates. High inventory, poor demand, and potential alumina production cuts lead to a weak trend [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates. Inventory decreases, but there is an oversupply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to upstream cost fluctuations [7]. - Glass oscillates strongly. Cold - repair may compress capacity, and cost support may lift prices [7].