国投期货化工日报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Ratings Positive (Bullish) - Propylene, Plastic, Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] Negative (Bearish) - Pure Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Bottle Chips, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fibers: ★☆☆ [1] Neutral - Glass, Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two olefin futures contracts continued to consolidate weakly around the 5 - day moving average. Polyolefin futures contracts remained in a bearish pattern [2]. - Pure benzene may enter a volatile pattern, and styrene will likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate [3]. - PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, while PTA will follow cost - driven logic. Ethylene glycol has limited medium - term rebound space. Short fibers are subject to raw material price fluctuations, and bottle chips are cost - driven [4]. - Methanol is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and urea may return to a stalemate [5]. - PVC and caustic soda are expected to run in a low - level range, with PVC potentially showing a stop - falling and stabilizing trend [6]. - Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and glass is expected to fluctuate strongly. A long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy can be considered [7]. Summary by Industry Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices increased due to tight supply, but downstream cost pressure may limit upward space. Plastic and polypropylene futures remained bearish, with stable domestic supply and weak demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene may enter a volatile pattern due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand structure improved slightly, with profits repaired, and will likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic, and its processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has limited medium - term rebound space. Short fibers are subject to raw material prices, and bottle chips are cost - driven [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with short - term long - side or positive - spread strategies advisable, but high inventory may suppress the upward space. Urea prices may return to a stalemate after a short - term rise [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC may run in a low - level range, with a possible stop - falling and stabilizing trend due to factors such as improved export and cost support. Caustic soda is weakly operating due to high supply and low demand [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a long - term supply - surplus situation, and glass is expected to fluctuate strongly. A long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy can be considered [7].