GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-27 12:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 9.26 CNY, while the current price is 8.16 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's profit growth has turned positive in Q3 2025, with revenue continuing to show strong growth. Fee and commission income is recovering gradually, and other non-interest income has performed well, maintaining stable asset quality [2][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 843,070 million CNY, with a decline of 3.7% from the previous year. The revenue is expected to recover slightly in the following years, with growth rates of -2.5% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 4.7% in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 363,993 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.8% from the previous year. The growth is expected to remain modest at 0.5% for 2024 and 2025, and then increase to 1.4% and 2.2% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4]. - The company's net asset value per share (BVPS) is projected to grow from 9.55 CNY in 2023 to 12.37 CNY by 2027 [4]. Performance Metrics - The net interest income growth rate is expected to decline to -0.70% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in asset expansion and a widening net interest margin decline [12]. - Non-interest income, particularly from fees and commissions, is expected to show a recovery with a growth rate of 0.60% in 2025, supported by capital market activities and improved management of commission expenses [12]. - Other non-interest income is projected to grow significantly by 27.59% in 2025, driven by investment income realization and increased fair value changes [12]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is stable at 1.33% as of Q3 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 217.21% [12]. - The company maintains a strong capital adequacy ratio of 14.10%, indicating robust financial health [8].