资产配置日报：反弹与压力并存-20251127

Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced fluctuations on November 27, with the Wind All A Index declining by 0.01% and a total trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - The ChiNext Index faced selling pressure after breaking through the 3100 point mark, confirming previous reports that it was nearing a peak and facing profit-taking pressure [2][3] - The overall market remains in a volatile state, with the Wind All A Index showing a pattern of rising and falling over three consecutive days, indicating insufficient confidence among investors [2] Index and Industry Recovery - The recovery of major indices since the significant drop on November 21 shows varied performance, with the CSI 2000 index down only 0.52%, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 500 indices fell by 1.20% and 1.57%, respectively [3] - The technology sector has been the main focus of the rebound, with the STAR 200 index recovering its losses from November 21, showing an overall increase of 1.41% [3] - The media and communication sectors saw increases of 3.75% and 3.67%, driven by narratives surrounding AI applications and optical communications [3] Investment Opportunities - Potential rebound opportunities include the domestic electronic industry, which has not yet shown significant recovery, and the power equipment sector, which may attract funds as market sentiment shifts [3] - The automation equipment sector, particularly robotics, has only just begun to recover from previous declines and may present further investment opportunities [3] - If market sentiment weakens, the underperforming dividend sector could benefit from risk-averse behavior among investors [3] Hong Kong Market Insights - Southbound capital has shown a cautious attitude, with a shift from continuous net inflows to slight net outflows, indicating a wait-and-see approach among investors [4] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong has seen gains, potentially linked to upcoming policy discussions, while the A-share consumer policy debate has yet to gain momentum [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has returned to a weak oscillation pattern, with institutions remaining cautious and continuing to sell bonds [4] - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose by 1.0 and 0.3 basis points, respectively, reflecting ongoing market pressures [4][6] - The overall cautious sentiment in the bond market is expected to persist in the short term, with investors awaiting new information to shift market expectations [6] Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market has shown stable performance with notable structural highlights, particularly in precious metals like platinum and palladium, which saw significant price increases on their first trading day [7] - Precious metals have continued to attract investment, with silver outperforming gold, and industrial metals showing mild recovery [7][8] - The glass market has experienced a five-day rally, attributed to low valuations and supply contraction expectations [9] Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - The commodity market experienced a slight outflow of 0.5 billion yuan, but precious metals have seen consistent inflows, indicating strong investor interest [8] - The market is beginning to price in risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, supporting a mild increase in precious metal prices [8] - The silver inventory has dropped nearly 50% since mid-October, leading to a "short squeeze" scenario that has driven up silver prices [8]