格林大华期货早盘提示-20251128

Report Investment Rating - The global economic situation is rated as (weakening) [1] Core View - The global economy is at the top and starting to weaken due to consecutive wrong policies in the US [2] Summary by Category Macroeconomic and Financial Information - The Fed's economic Beige Book shows that government shutdowns and AI applications have led to a weak job market, while rising tariffs and healthcare costs have increased corporate spending, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns. Consumer K-shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high-income consumers maintaining spending resilience, but middle and low-income families tightening their belts [1] - This year on Black Friday, US consumers' shopping carts have changed significantly, shifting from seeking discounts on big-ticket items to stockpiling daily necessities. 85% of consumers expect tariffs to drive up prices, making them more cautious in their purchasing strategies [1] - MIT research finds that AI can replace 11.7% of the US labor market, equivalent to a wage scale of $1.2 trillion in the finance, healthcare, and professional services sectors [1] - BofA expects the AI data center market to grow fivefold to over $1.2 trillion by 2030. Even if NVIDIA's market share drops from 85% to 75%, its absolute earnings will still grow explosively. GPUs have an irreplaceable advantage in the public cloud and enterprise markets, and the current valuation does not fully reflect long-term profitability [1] - WeRide and Uber have launched fully unmanned services in Abu Dhabi, the first L4-level fully unmanned operation in the Middle East. Abu Dhabi is the first city outside the US to launch fully unmanned Robotaxi, attracting global attention in the autonomous driving industry [1] - Li Auto's CTO, Xie Yan, said that the company's self-designed M100 AI inference chip is undergoing large-scale system testing and is expected to be commercialized next year. After collaborative design with the basic model compiler and software system, its performance-cost ratio will be more than three times that of current high-end chips [1] - Many technology companies, including Dell Technologies and HP, have warned that due to the surge in demand from AI infrastructure construction, there may be a shortage of memory chips in 2026. Consumer electronics manufacturers such as Xiaomi Group have issued potential price increase warnings, while companies like Lenovo Group have started hoarding memory chips [1] - In September, US core capital goods orders jumped 0.9% month-on-month, growing strongly for two consecutive months and far exceeding market expectations, indicating strong corporate capital expenditure willingness. Although the growth of overall durable goods orders slowed to 0.5% due to the drag from industries such as transportation, orders excluding transportation increased by 0.6%, still exceeding expectations [1] - The UK Labour Party has proposed the most "heavy tax" budget in history, with the tax burden soaring to 38% of GDP. Although the market initially welcomed it, the early leakage of the budget by 40 minutes and the tax measures targeting wage earners and capital gains have raised questions about the government's governance ability [2] - JPMorgan predicts that Brent crude oil prices may fall to $30 per barrel in 2027 due to a severe supply glut. Goldman Sachs advises investors to short crude oil immediately and expects the average price of WTI crude oil to drop to $53 in 2026 as OPEC+ and American oil producers continue to increase production, and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks may release more Russian supply [2] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K-shaped differentiation is intensifying, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen significantly to 80% as employment data weakens [2] - Alibaba's CEO said that in the industry, including Alibaba and large US cloud providers, not only are new GPUs fully utilized, but even previous generations of GPUs are also fully occupied. There is unlikely to be an AI bubble in the next three years [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head said that the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000-fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet the rising demand for AI services [2] - NVIDIA's CEO, Huang Renxun, said that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists believe that the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. The planned capacity of US data centers has soared to 245 gigawatts, with an increase of 45 gigawatts in the third quarter alone. Due to a lack of confidence in the power grid supply capacity, developers are turning to building their own power plants using natural gas in energy-producing areas such as Texas [2] - US retail sales in September only grew by 0.2%, far lower than expected, indicating that Americans are cutting spending, and the burden capacity crisis is starting to impact the consumer side [2] - ADP weekly data shows that private enterprises have cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 jobs per week in the previous update, with the pace of layoffs accelerating significantly. Well-known companies such as Amazon have carried out large-scale layoffs, and economists are worried that these layoffs may be an economic warning signal [2]