金信期货日刊：看多PVC次主力合约的4大可能性分析-20251128

Report Information - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD Daily Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute Group 1: PVC Investment Analysis - Investment Rating: Bullish on PVC second - tier contract - Core View: There are four reasons to be bullish on the PVC second - tier contract - Detailed Points: - Valuation and cost support: Current PVC prices are at a near - decade low, with the entire industry in losses (700 yuan/ton loss for calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for ethylene method). There is a strong demand for valuation repair and limited downside. Rising coal prices lift the cost center, and the falling caustic soda price weakens the "alkali - chlorine compensation" support, leading to an expected supply contraction [3]. - Export demand increment: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports to India are expected in the fourth quarter, which can digest domestic high inventories [3]. - Policy and supply - demand marginal improvement: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies is accelerating, which will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. On the supply side, new capacity has been put into production, and some enterprises have reduced their loads due to profit compression, with the operating rate declining month - on - month, thus alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and capital drive: Frequent release of positive macro - policies has increased market risk appetite. Capital inflows have promoted the repair of futures prices. Previous negative factors have been fully digested, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is prominent [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - Core View: Technically, from a 5 - minute cycle, it is expected that there will be an upward rush in the early trading session tomorrow. Overall, chasing the rise is not recommended [7]. Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy is not to chase the rise or kill the fall [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Core View: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. Glass Futures - Core View: Technically, there have been many glass factory overhauls recently, and sentiment has improved. It can be viewed with an oscillation - bullish idea [15]. Methanol Futures - Core View: As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons from the previous period. This week, there was a significant destocking of methanol port inventory. Long - term long opportunities should be grasped [18]. Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown an oscillation - bearish trend [21].