美股感恩节休市，中国10月工企营收和利润增速均转负

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experienced a volume - shrinking adjustment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to 3875.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.44%. The daily trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day. In October, the revenue and profit growth rates of industrial enterprises turned negative, with quantity dropping, price stabilizing, and profit margins shrinking [14][15]. - The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the stock index futures closed flat with light trading. Putin's statement on the peace plan had limited impact on the U.S. stock market [2]. - After a sharp decline in the bond market, the odds of going long improved, and there would be a repair, but the adjustment pressure still existed after the rebound [3]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the supply - demand situation changed little, with Brazil's expected new - crop output hitting a record high. The market focused on U.S. soybean export sales [4]. - In the black metal sector, the overall inventory data of steel was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For energy - chemical products such as float glass, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week, and the futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan but there was no final solution. The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the market trading was light with the stock index futures closing flat. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations had limited impact on the U.S. stock market. It was recommended to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average could provide strong support [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. It was recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3564 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the bond market might have a short - term repair, but it was still bearish overall [17][18]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA would release the weekly export sales report. The market expected U.S. soybean export sales to increase by 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season was expected to reach a record 178 million tons. It was recommended to view the futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets with a range - bound perspective and focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather [19][20]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 27, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia was weak. After the end of winter stockpiling, coal prices were driven by actual supply and demand. It was recommended to pay attention to whether the daily consumption would turn positive after December to support coal prices [21]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company was advancing iron ore projects in Ukraine and Canada. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate widely. With port inventories piling up and demand seasonally declining, iron ore was expected to maintain a range - bound trend [22]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot market of port coke fluctuated. For coking coal, supply was increasing while iron - making output decreased slightly. For coke, the market expectation weakened due to falling coking coal prices. It was recommended to focus on downstream restocking [23][24]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of corn starch increased, and inventory continued to decline significantly. It was recommended that starch would likely remain strong in the short term, and mid - short - term spread trading should be range - bound, while it might strengthen in the long - term [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises continued to decline counter - seasonally. The spot price was strong, and the futures price was oscillating at a high level. The 01 contract was expected to be difficult to fall, and it was not recommended to short the 03 and 05 contracts against the trend [26]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production schedule of major white - goods in December 2025 decreased. The steel inventory data was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. It was recommended to view steel prices with a range - bound perspective [27][28][29][30]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A 30,000 - ton polysilicon plant would be built in Morocco. The spot price of polysilicon was mainly determined by the game between policy and fundamentals. It was recommended that the futures main contract might trade between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - bound trading opportunities [31][32][34]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The first - phase project of an industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia reached an important milestone. The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon deteriorated, and it was recommended that the short - term futures price might oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton [35][36]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was at a discount. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. It was recommended that short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses on dips, and it was better to wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [37][38]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - 3 - month spread was at a premium. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, hold long - short spread positions for spread trading, and exit cross - border arbitrage positions in a timely manner [39][40][41]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. A project's production was expected to decline. The nickel market was still in surplus, but the current futures price was below the cost. It was recommended that previous short - position holders could gradually stop losses and consider going long at low prices [42][43][44]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Ghana made progress. The production of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory also decreased. It was not recommended to chase long positions, and short positions could be lightly established on the right - hand side if production resumed and demand declined in the off - season. A long - position strategy was recommended in the long - term [45][46]. 2.14 Energy - Chemical Products (Natural Gas) - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased more than expected, but further price increases were difficult due to warm - weather forecasts and weak overseas demand. NYMEX natural gas still faced downward pressure [47][48]. 2.15 Energy - Chemical Products (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA increased by 1.02% on November 27. The impact of the carry - over policy might be more emotional than real. It was recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. 2.16 Energy - Chemical Products (Styrene) - The weekly production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased. The trading focus shifted back to domestic supply and demand. The inventory in East China was expected to increase, and it was recommended to pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans and treat it as range - bound in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.17 Energy - Chemical Products (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased due to weak demand. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply would shrink due to profit compression [54][55][56]. 2.18 Energy - Chemical Products (PVC) - The price of PVC powder had a narrow - range adjustment. The supply was expected to increase, and demand was suppressed by the weak real - estate market. It was recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [57][58][59]. 2.19 Energy - Chemical Products (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply decreased slightly, and demand increased. In the short term, the fundamentals of soda ash had some support, but it was recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term and short far - month contracts on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.20 Energy - Chemical Products (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week. The futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns. Attention should be paid to the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news - related disturbances [63].