商品期货早班车-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold Market - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metal prices fluctuated, with London gold reaching $4150 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Putin discussed a peace plan, China's industrial profits showed changes, and there were various inventory changes in gold and silver [2]. - Trading Strategy: Buy gold at the lower support level, and short - term long silver due to overseas market tensions [2]. - Silver Market - Market Performance: Reflects in inventory and price changes in different markets [2]. - Fundamentals: Inventory changes in multiple regions and import data from India [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term long due to overseas market tensions [2]. Base Metals - Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum main contract closed +0.21% at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 150 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants, stable weekly aluminum product start - up rate [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to a warm macro - environment, inventory reduction, and expanding spot discounts [3]. - Alumina - Market Performance: The main contract closed +0.15% at 2724 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 18 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: No long - cycle maintenance and production reduction, high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating before large - scale production cuts due to supply - demand surplus and cost support [3]. - Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and funds [3]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in furnace start - up, expected decline in south - west start - up rate, and different demand situations in downstream industries [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to trade between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 55235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan/ton, with changes in positions and funds [4]. - Fundamentals: Slight decline in weekly production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand in downstream industries [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected decline in downstream production and market uncertainties [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans are in short - term oscillation [5]. - Fundamentals: Near - term supply contraction, long - term large supply from South America, strong US soybean crushing, and uncertain exports [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for new drivers in the US soybean market, and the domestic market's mid - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fluctuate narrowly, with different trends in spot prices in North and Northeast China [5]. - Fundamentals: Supply delay due to weather, low inventory, strong demand from deep - processing industries, and expected increase in new - crop production [5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to selling hedging opportunities as Northeast supply increases [5]. - Fats and Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose due to flood concerns [5]. - Fundamentals: High production in the producing areas, expected inventory accumulation in the near term, and seasonal production reduction in the long term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Trade the flood - related disturbances and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [5]. - Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5411 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [5]. - Fundamentals: International sugar prices are expected to decline in the long term, and the domestic market faces pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures prices rebounded overnight, and international crude oil prices stopped falling [6]. - Fundamentals: Changes in international cotton export and import data, and stable domestic downstream demand [6]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the 13600 - 13900 yuan/ton range [6]. - Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices were stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in laying hen inventory, increased stocking by traders, and short - term strong egg prices with limited sustainability [6]. - Trading Strategy: Egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - Fundamentals: Abundant pig supply, expected seasonal increase in demand, and possible concentrated slaughter near the winter solstice [6]. - Trading Strategy: Pig futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating [6]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [7]. - Fundamentals: New device production, reduced supply pressure, and weakening downstream demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [7]. - PVC - Market Performance: V01 closed at 4546, up 1% [7]. - Fundamentals: Low prices, increased inventory, increased supply, and weak demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short or conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [7]. - PTA - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices showed certain trends, with a specific spot basis [8]. - Fundamentals: High domestic PX supply, short - term PTA supply decline, and overall supply - demand situations in related industries [8]. - Trading Strategy: Take profit on PX long positions, and stop loss on PTA processing - fee short positions [8]. - Rubber - Market Performance: RU2601 oscillated upward, with continued night - session gains [8]. - Fundamentals: Stable raw material prices, different production situations in tire factories [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term strong oscillation due to rainfall affecting production [8]. - Glass - Market Performance: FG01 closed at 1060, up 1.9% [8]. - Fundamentals: Bottom - up rebound due to cold - repair and cost support, high inventory, and weak real - estate data [8]. - Trading Strategy: Exit reverse arbitrage due to upstream production cuts [8]. - PP - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [8]. - Fundamentals: New device production, increased supply, and weakening demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [8]. - MEG - Market Performance: East China spot price and basis are provided [9]. - Fundamentals: High - level supply, inventory accumulation, and situations in related industries [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices for the 01 contract and take partial profit on short positions [9]. - Benzene and Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly, with a certain market trading atmosphere [9]. - Fundamentals: Inventory situations in pure benzene and styrene, and weak downstream demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, with limited upward space [9]. - Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa01 closed at 1190, up 1% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand balance, high inventory, and downstream demand situations [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to supply - demand balance [9].