能源化策略：OPEC+?底可能维持产量决议，美国MX下跌拖累芳烃

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the OPEC+ meeting on November 30 are the main factors affecting the crude oil market. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may cause crude oil to continue to fluctuate. The decline in the US MX price on the 26th has led to a short - term selling pressure on aromatic varieties. In the next period, the basis and inventory levels may determine the strength of different varieties [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue has continuously disturbed the crude oil geopolitical premium. The OPEC+ meeting is likely to continue the first - quarter production policy. Global supply surplus and inventory accumulation pressure remain. If geopolitical support weakens, the price is expected to return to a weak pattern [8]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price may seek lower support. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production in December and the expected Russia - Ukraine framework agreement, the crude oil price may test the important support level of WTI57. The asphalt futures price has broken through the important support of 3000 and may seek lower support. The asphalt market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. OPEC+ increasing production in December and the expected Russia - Ukraine agreement have led to a decline in the cracking spread and futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It follows the decline of refined oil products. It is affected by factors such as the decline in Russian refined oil exports, shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply and demand situation is changing [12]. - PX: The price difference between US and Asian aromatics has converged, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the profit support has strengthened under the concession of naphtha. The overall supply - demand situation of PX is relatively stable, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuation of blending oil sentiment and cost support [14]. - PTA: The sentiment of blending oil has cooled down, but the short - term supply - demand pattern still has support. The PTA load is at a relatively low level, and the high load of downstream polyester provides support. The spot profit has resistance to rebound, but the basis is relatively strong [15]. - Pure Benzene: The US gasoline is weak, and pure benzene is mainly in a volatile state. There are many news about pure benzene and styrene, with both positive and negative factors. The driving force of the blending oil narrative is questionable, and attention should be paid to the trend of cracking spreads and price differences between the US and Asia [17][18]. - Styrene: The blending oil narrative has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. After the extrusion of the blending oil premium, the downward space of styrene is limited. The balance sheet shows that the contradiction between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not significant [19][20]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of oil - based plants. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has no further positive support, and the port inventory is gradually increasing. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range adjustment in the short term [21][22]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream. The upstream polymerization cost has decreased, and the downstream demand is weakening. The inventory of short - fiber has slightly increased [24][25]. - Bottle Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate. The upstream polymerization cost has decreased, and the price of bottle chips has followed the decline. The processing fee has expanded passively, but the supply - demand drive is weak, and the profit repair space is limited [26][27]. - Methanol: The support from port inventory reduction and import contraction is limited, and it is difficult to continue the upward trend. The overall supply data is still strong, and downstream demand is weak. The upward space after the futures price rebound is limited [29]. - Urea: The inventory has significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment remains. Although the supply - demand pattern of urea is still characterized by strong supply and weak demand, the significant inventory reduction has brought bullish sentiment. The trading volume may slow down after the factory raises the price [30]. - LLDPE: The support from maintenance is limited, and LLDPE is in a volatile state. The futures price of LLDPE is affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, geopolitical premiums, and its own supply - demand situation. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [33]. - PP: The fundamental pressure still exists, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The current maintenance support is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the mid - stream inventory is at a high level. Future attention should be paid to the changes and sustainability of maintenance [34]. - PL: The spot is strong, and PL is in a volatile state. The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [35]. - PVC: High inventory suppresses the price, and PVC may anchor production reduction. The high - inventory removal of PVC is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction. The production is at a high level, downstream demand is weak, and exports have increased [36]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. Caustic soda is in a volatile state. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction. High inventory in the upstream and downstream is putting pressure on the spot price [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Price Difference: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period price differences for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis, its change values, and warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is given [40]. - Inter - variety Price Difference: The latest values and changes of inter - variety price differences for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented [42]. - Chemical Basis and Price Difference Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided for this part.