油脂市场情绪企稳，或继续震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, it gives outlooks such as "oscillating upward", "oscillating sideways", and "oscillating downward" [7][8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It believes that the overall market shows a pattern of diversified trends, with some commodities expected to be strong, some weak, and others remaining in a range - bound state [7][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Categories Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has stabilized and may continue to oscillate upward [7]. - Logic: Macro - environment factors include expected Fed rate cuts in December and potential progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, leading to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in crude oil. From an industrial perspective, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and domestic imported soybean arrivals are expected to be at a relatively high level. Palm oil production in Malaysia in November is expected to have a narrowing month - on - month increase, and exports have declined. Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, but future supply is expected to increase [7]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate upward [7]. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: Pay attention to South American weather and consider opportunistically laying out long positions in M2605 [8]. - Logic: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and South American agricultural regions will face climate differentiation, which may affect the growth of new - season corn and soybeans. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and US soybean exports are expected to decline. Domestically, China's soybean import profit has recovered, and the oil mill's soybean inventory is high, while the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing [8]. - Outlook: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to oscillate upward [8]. Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is tight, with factors such as upstream farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream rigid - demand restocking, differences in grain quality and regional price differentials, and traders' rush to buy and transport grains driving up prices. The tight transportation capacity also exacerbates the situation [10]. - Outlook: Prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Spot prices are weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions [11]. - Logic: In the short term, supply is abundant, and demand is insufficient. In the medium term, there is pressure on large - pig inventory, and prices are in a downward cycle. In the long term, sow production capacity is expected to decline, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [11]. - Outlook: Prices will oscillate downward. The near - term contracts are weak, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [11]. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: It will oscillate slightly upward [13]. - Logic: Affected by the flood situation in southern Thailand, the market is relatively strong. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market. Demand has not changed significantly recently, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises is still acceptable [14]. - Outlook: Prices will continue to oscillate widely with high elasticity, and it is difficult to have a trend - based market [14]. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: It will maintain range - bound oscillations [15]. - Logic: The recent stability of raw material butadiene trading and the strong performance of natural rubber support the market. The butadiene price rebounded after a decline, but there are still some selling pressures at high prices [15]. - Outlook: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, it is advisable to short at high prices [15]. Cotton - Viewpoint: Cotton prices fluctuate narrowly, and the upward and downward space is limited [16]. - Logic: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, there is buying support when prices fall. On the inventory side, the commercial inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on prices may decrease after entering the destocking cycle [17]. - Outlook: In the short term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [17]. Sugar - Viewpoint: Sugar prices rebound, and there is short - term support at the bottom [17]. - Logic: In the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are in a downward trend, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. However, in the short term, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long term, prices will oscillate downward; in the short term, there is support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - term and far - term futures contracts is differentiated [19]. - Logic: The recent decline in futures prices is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential shortages of delivery warehouse receipts, the upward trend of hardwood pulp prices, and relatively high non - bleached softwood pulp prices. Negative factors include a certain amount of warehouse receipts to be delivered, expected non - reduction of softwood pulp imports, and a decreasing proportion of softwood pulp use [19]. - Outlook: Pulp futures will oscillate widely, with the 01 contract having an expected upper pressure range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 03 and 05 contracts having an upper pressure range of 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [19]. Offset Printing Paper - Viewpoint: Offset printing paper will oscillate narrowly [20]. - Logic: The continuous decline in raw material prices affects the market sentiment negatively. Social demand is still weak. Supply is stable, downstream printing factory orders are limited, and the cost support from wood pulp is weakening [20]. - Outlook: There is still supply pressure. There is price support in the short term due to publishers' pick - up, but it may oscillate downward in the medium term [21]. Logs - Viewpoint: The valuation is not high, and the downward space is limited [22]. - Logic: There is no obvious buying intention. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a lack of upward momentum. New Zealand's shipments to China are increasing, and demand is expected to remain weak. The market is in a state of "weak supply and demand", and the inventory will gradually decrease [22]. - Outlook: The supply will remain loose, demand has no expectation of increase, and the spot price is under pressure, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at the bottom [22].