美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251128-20251128

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251128: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The rising probability of a Fed rate cut in December and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On November 27, 2025, the closing price was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895; open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956; inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 [2] Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium/Discount - On November 27, 2025, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 87,085, up 430 from the previous day; SMM + water copper opening discount half - average price was 55, up 20; SMM premium copper opening discount half - average price was 175, up 25 [2] London Copper - On November 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23 from the previous day; LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 0, down 138.27 [2] COMEX Copper - On November 26, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 5.2035, up 0.20 from November 24; total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 from November 24 [2] Supply - demand Situation - On the supply side, production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2]