国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, PP,烧碱,苯乙烯: Trend Weak [2][31][35][59] - MEG: Hold Long MEG and Short PX [2] - 橡胶: Oscillating with an Upward Bias [2] - 合成橡胶: Oscillating, with Fundamental Pressure but Valuation Support [2] - 沥青: Rising Production, Accelerated Inventory Reduction in the North [2] - LLDPE: Positive Basis, Ample Supply [2] - 纸浆: Oscillating [2] - 玻璃: Stable Raw Sheet Prices [2] - 甲醇: Short - term Rebound Continues [2] - 尿素: Trading in a Range, Following Spot Sentiment Intraday [2] - 纯碱: Little Change in the Spot Market [2] - LPG: Strong External Market, Decent Demand [2] - 丙烯: Weakening Demand Support, Limited Upside Drivers [2] - PVC: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 燃料油: Oscillating, Reduced Short - term Fluctuations [2] - 低硫燃料油: Continuing the Adjustment Trend, Slight Rebound in the High - Low Sulfur Spread of External Spot [2] - 集运指数（欧线）: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 短纤, 瓶片: Short - term Oscillation, Medium - term Pressure [2] - 胶版印刷纸: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 纯苯: Short - term Oscillation [2] 2. Core Views - For PX, PTA, the trend is weak, suggest exiting long positions and holding long MEG and short PTA/PX hedges [4][7][9] - For MEG, the price is at a low level, with improved supply - demand balance in December, suggest closing short positions and anti - arbitrage, and holding long MEG and short PX hedges [7][9] - For 橡胶, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias due to supply tightening expectations and raw material price support [10][13] - For 合成橡胶, it will oscillate as it faces fundamental pressure from inventory but has valuation support from international prices and natural rubber events [14][16][17] - For 沥青, production is rising and inventory in the north is being reduced rapidly, with a downward trend in future production [18][27] - For LLDPE, the basis is positive but supply remains ample, with mid - term supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [28][29] - For PP, short - term short - chasing is not advisable, but mid - term trend pressure persists due to high supply and weak demand [31][32] - For 烧碱, the high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, with limited cost support and downward pressure [35][37] - For 纸浆, it will oscillate as the market is in a stalemate with high inventory and weak demand [41][45] - For 玻璃, raw sheet prices are stable, with cost support but weak downstream orders [48][49] - For 甲醇, the short - term rebound continues, but mid - term fundamentals still face pressure [51][54] - For 尿素, it will trade in a range, with high domestic supply pressure but weakened downward drive by policies, and clear support and resistance levels [56][58] - For 苯乙烯, it will oscillate in the short term, with a slightly stronger pattern than pure benzene but limited rebound height [59][60] - For 纯碱, the spot market changes little, with stable production and demand, and is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62] - For LPG, the external market is strong and demand is decent, while for 丙烯, demand support is weakening [65][66] - For PVC, it is at a low level, short - term short - chasing is not advisable, but the high - production and high - inventory pattern is hard to change in the short term [74] - For 燃料油, it oscillates with reduced short - term fluctuations, and 低硫燃料油 continues the adjustment trend [77] - For 集运指数（欧线）, it oscillates at a low level [79] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX主力昨日收盘价6718元/吨，跌0.83%；PTA主力4632元/吨，跌1.11%；MEG主力3873元/吨，跌0.59% [5] - Market Dynamics: PX价格下跌，PTA装置负荷调整至73.7%，MEG部分装置有重启和检修计划 [6] - Trend Strength: PX和PTA趋势强度为 - 1，MEG为0 [7] - Suggestions: Exit long positions in PX and PTA, hold long MEG and short PX/PTA hedges, close short positions and anti - arbitrage in MEG [7][9] 橡胶 - Fundamental Data: 橡胶主力日盘收盘价15,280元/吨，夜盘15,465元/吨，成交量减少，持仓量减少 [11] - Industry News: The natural rubber market had large long - short divergence this week, with prices oscillating downward. Supply tightening expectations supported prices, but inventory and export data dragged them down [12][13] - Trend Strength: 1 [11] 合成橡胶 - Fundamental Data: 顺丁橡胶主力日盘收盘价10,400元/吨，成交量和持仓量 decreased [14] - Industry News: Butadiene inventory increased significantly this period, and domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory also rose. The market oscillates with pressure and support [14][16][17] - Trend Strength: 0 [16] 沥青 - Fundamental Data: BU2601昨日收盘价3,007元/吨，跌1.18%；炼厂开工率34.11%， up 4.26%；炼厂库存率25.89%， down 0.04% [18] - Market News: As of November 27, factory and social inventories decreased, and December production is expected to decline [27] - Trend Strength: - 1 [26] LLDPE - Fundamental Data: L2601昨日收盘价6699元/吨，跌0.12%，基差转正 [28] - Spot News: The futures market opened low and oscillated, with the basis in North China gradually repaired. Middle - East and US offers declined, and arrivals in Q1 2026 may increase [28] - Market Analysis: Supply is ample, with mid - term supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29] - Trend Strength: 0 [30] PP - Fundamental Data: PP2601昨日收盘价6295元/吨，跌0.03% [31] - Spot News: The domestic PP market weakened this week, with the price center slightly moving down [32] - Market Analysis: Supply pressure is high, but short - term short - chasing is not advisable due to improved short - term trading. Mid - term pressure persists [32] - Trend Strength: - 1 [33] 烧碱 - Fundamental Data: 01合约期货价格2238元/吨，山东最便宜可交割现货32碱价格760元/吨 [35] - Spot News: Factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda enterprises increased, and the storage ratio rose in all regions [36] - Market Analysis: High production and inventory continue, with limited cost support and downward pressure [37] - Trend Strength: - 1 [38] 纸浆 - Fundamental Data: 纸浆主力日盘收盘价5,184元/吨，成交量和持仓量 decreased [43] - Industry News: The imported pulp market shows a "weak softwood, strong hardwood" pattern, with high inventory and weak demand [44][45] - Trend Strength: 0 [43] 玻璃 - Fundamental Data: FG601昨日收盘价1041元/吨，涨1.46% [49] - Spot News: Float glass prices were stable with a weakening trend, with cost support but weak downstream orders [49] - Trend Strength: 0 [49] 甲醇 - Fundamental Data: 甲醇主力收盘价2,114元/吨，成交量 increased,持仓量 decreased [51] - Spot News: The port methanol market rebounded, and inventory decreased significantly. The inland market also rose [53] - Market Analysis: Short - term rebound continues, but mid - term fundamentals face pressure [54] - Trend Strength: 1 [55] 尿素 - Fundamental Data: 尿素主力收盘价1,668元/吨，成交量 decreased,持仓量 increased [56] - Industry News: Enterprise inventory decreased in most regions this period, and trading volume increased recently. High supply pressure exists but is mitigated by policies [57][58] - Trend Strength: 0 [58] 苯乙烯 - Fundamental Data: 苯乙烯2512收盘价6,487元/吨， down 86 [59] - Spot News: The pure benzene market oscillates, with weak domestic chemical drive and strong overseas blending drive. The styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene but with limited rebound [60] - Trend Strength: - 1 [59] 纯碱 - Fundamental Data: SA2601昨日收盘价1,176元/吨，涨0.26% [62] - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, with stable production and demand, and is expected to be stable and oscillate in the short term [62] - Trend Strength: 0 [63] LPG, 丙烯 - Fundamental Data: PG2512昨日收盘价4,363元/吨，跌0.46%；PL2601收盘价5,871元/吨，涨0.31% [66] - Market News: CP paper prices rose on November 27. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71][72] - Trend Strength: Both are 0 [70] PVC - Fundamental Data: 01合约期货价格4517元/吨，华东现货价格4450元/吨 [74] - Spot News: The domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with some devices having production - cut expectations [74] - Market Analysis: It oscillates at a low level, with a high - production and high - inventory pattern hard to change in the short term [74] - Trend Strength: 0 [75] 燃料油, 低硫燃料油 - Fundamental Data: FU2601昨日收盘价2,471元/吨，涨0.16%；LU2601收盘价3,023元/吨， unchanged [77] - Trend Strength: Both are 0 [77] 集运指数（欧线） - Fundamental Data: EC2512昨日收盘价1,779.7，涨0.69% [79] - Trend Strength: No specific strength mentioned, but it oscillates at a low level [79]