国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Subject to market sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: The price of the ore end is firm, wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2601 futures was 799.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.31%); the open interest decreased by 5,496 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - Macro - Industry News: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2601 futures was 3,093 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the closing price of HC2601 futures was 3,293 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%). Spot prices in some regions declined, and there were changes in basis and spread values [7] - Macro - Industry News: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 871 million tons, a decrease of 22 million tons (2.5%) from the previous month. In October 2025, national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, etc. [8][9] - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 futures decreased by 26 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of silicomanganese 2601 and 2605 futures decreased by 4 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices and various spread values showed corresponding changes [11] - Macro - Industry News: In November, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia was 63.03%, an increase of 0.64% from October, and the output was expected to be 158,700 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from October; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu was 38.67%, a decrease of 2.66% from October, and the output was expected to be 44,700 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from October. There were also changes in the production of silicomanganese in other regions [12][13] - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2601 coking coal futures was 1,071 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton (- 1.2%); the closing price of J2601 coke futures was 1,607 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). Spot prices and basis and spread values changed [15] - Macro - Industry News: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [15] - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [16] Logs - Fundamental Data: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spread values of different log futures contracts showed various changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [18] - Macro - Industry News: Starting from November 10, 2025, the General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs [20] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [20]