铅锌日评：沪铅震荡回落；沪锌震荡偏弱-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market has seen a decline in lead prices. The supply shortage has improved due to the start - up of refineries and the raw material support has weakened. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - The zinc market has weak fundamentals in the short - term, and zinc prices may face pressure. In the medium - term, the tightness of the ore end may support zinc prices. It is also recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Metrics - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.64%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 42.60%, the holding volume decreased by 1.84%, and the trading - to - holding ratio increased by 45.27%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.04% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price was 1,983.50 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.15% [1]. Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fees are likely to rise rather than fall, but it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has fluctuated slightly. The operation rate of secondary lead has rebounded due to the lifting of environmental protection factors and better raw material arrivals. The finished product inventory of secondary lead is difficult to accumulate as downstream buyers turn to secondary lead [1]. Industry News - Some large - brand electric bicycle lead - acid batteries in regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Hubei have a rising return rate, mainly in the 22Ah and 24Ah high - end batteries. The return rate in some areas exceeds 6%, mainly due to battery grid breakage, possibly caused by sealant curing agents. The faulty batteries mostly come from factories in Jiangsu and Anhui [1]. - On November 26, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.08 US dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,359 to 161,920 lots [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Metrics - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.22% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose by 0.27%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 19.16%, the holding volume increased by 1.01%, and the trading - to - holding ratio increased by 17.97%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.49% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price was 3,022.00 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio increased by 1.36% [1]. Fundamental Information - Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate market remains tight, and the processing fees are expected to decline. The production of zinc ingots is not affected for now, but the demand is weak as outdoor construction in the north stops due to cold weather [1]. Industry News - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 59,800 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.9% decrease year - on - year [1]. - On November 26, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 163.36 US dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,623 to 220,552 lots [1].