西南期货早间评论-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure and should be treated with caution [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations, economic resilience, and improved market sentiment, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the slowdown of the US labor market, precious metals are favored. But considering the large recent increase, it is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [11]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak demand in the real estate industry and high inventory, their prices are expected to remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and its futures may face resistance in rebound. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. - Coke and coking coal futures may stop falling and stabilize. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [18]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot loss expands [21]. - For crude oil, although the number of rigs has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - term task. The 28 - point new plan brings new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities for the main contract [23]. - For fuel oil, although there are some negative factors, investors can still focus on long - entry opportunities for the main contract [27]. - For polyolefins, considering the current situation of the downstream industry, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [29]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [32]. - Natural rubber may show range - bound fluctuations in the short - term. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities [33]. - For PVC, the oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [35]. - Urea prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [38]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and follow macro - policy changes [40]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may be under pressure in the short - term. Focus on port inventory and supply changes [42]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side. Control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to consumption sustainability and the resumption progress of mines [46]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [48]. - Aluminum prices may experience a phased correction [50]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - Lead prices may show wide - range fluctuations [54]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [55]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost of nickel ore has support, but the consumption is weak [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can focus on long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - Palm oil may be considered for long - entry on pullbacks [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, a long - biased strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - Cotton prices are expected to be weak [67]. - Sugar prices are under pressure and may fluctuate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong [73]. - For live pigs, after partially closing out short positions, the remaining short positions can be temporarily held. Pay attention to the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling [76]. - For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [78]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch may follow the corn market [81]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 3564 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. The profit of industrial enterprises in October decreased year - on - year, while the cumulative profit from January to October increased year - on - year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the market risk preference has increased. Treasury bond futures are under pressure [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged special treasury bonds for "two - major" construction projects in the past two years [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. The market sentiment has improved, and the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise [9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The eurozone's economic and service industry sentiment indexes improved in November [11]. - The complex global environment and the slowdown of the US labor market are favorable for precious metals. But due to the large recent increase, it is better to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot prices of related products are given. In the medium - term, the demand for rebar is weak, and the supply is high, with high inventory. The price of hot - rolled coil is expected to follow a similar trend [13]. 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The spot prices of different types of iron ore are provided. Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has risen [15]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises is weakening. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand from steel mills may decline [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures both fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys is rising. The output of ferroalloys is declining, and the overall surplus is easing [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened and closed higher. The CFTC data shows that speculators reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased for three consecutive weeks. The 28 - point new plan brings new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [22]. 3.9 Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The delivery time of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is inconsistent. The inventory in Singapore has increased in November. There are some negative factors for fuel oil prices, but investors can still focus on long - entry opportunities [25]. 3.10 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer price of PP in Hangzhou moved down, and the price of LLDPE in Yuyao partially decreased. The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased slightly, but the order performance in some traditional fields is weak [28]. 3.11 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The price of butadiene is under pressure, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak. The social inventory has increased slightly [30]. 3.12 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises is weak. The inventory has increased slightly [33]. 3.13 PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream industries varies, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The social inventory has increased [35]. 3.14 Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply has increased, the demand of downstream products varies, and the industry profit has increased slightly. The inventory is lower than expected [38]. 3.15 PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread is relatively strong, the supply is slightly reduced, and the cost is affected by crude oil. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [40]. 3.16 PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply has decreased, the demand of polyester is stable, and the processing fee has declined. It may fluctuate in the short - term [41]. 3.17 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand support is limited. It may be under pressure in the short - term [42]. 3.18 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is stable, and the processing fee is adjusted. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [44]. 3.19 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee is adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export has increased slightly, and it may follow the cost side to fluctuate [45]. 3.20 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. 3.21 Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell slightly. The economic data strengthens the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which is beneficial to copper prices. But the supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the demand is weak [47]. 3.22 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, while alumina futures rose. The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the supply of alumina is in surplus, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is seasonally weak. Aluminum prices may experience a phased correction [49]. 3.23 Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the raw - material shortage provides support for zinc prices [51]. 3.24 Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand varies in different sectors. The inventory has increased [53]. 3.25 Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand shows certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin prices are expected to rise [55]. 3.26 Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of downstream nickel - iron plants is affected, and the consumption of stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices may fluctuate [56]. 3.27 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost completed, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory of oil and meal is high, but the demand is growing [57]. 3.28 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day due to production concerns. The export of Indonesian palm oil decreased in September, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. 3.29 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market was closed for Thanksgiving. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China in October showed different trends. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels [61]. 3.30 Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The USDA report increased the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [64]. 3.31 Sugar - On the previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded slightly. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing is less than last year, while the national new - sugar production has increased. The export of Brazilian sugar has increased, and the domestic import is expected to be high in the next two months [68]. 3.32 Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures rose significantly due to favorable inventory data. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [72]. 3.33 Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply pressure still exists, and the consumption change caused by subsequent cooling needs to be continuously monitored. Part of the short positions can be closed, and the remaining can be held temporarily [74]. 3.34 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the price of eggs in the main production areas rose, while that in the main sales areas remained unchanged. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the supply has recovered. The consumption may be supported by cooling, and it is advisable to wait and see [77]. 3.35 Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures closed flat, and corn - starch futures rose. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is affected, and the arrival volume at the northern port is low. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and corn - starch may follow the corn market [79].