格林大华期货早盘提示：股指-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Thursday's intraday rise and subsequent fall of the major indices in the two markets were normal technical movements, and the direction of oscillatory recovery remained unchanged [1][2][3] - The upcoming collective launch of the first batch of 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs on Friday, with a minimum fundraising time of only 3 days, is expected to provide investors with a new tool for investing in "hard technology" and bring more incremental funds to the market [2][3] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 80% due to lower-than-expected US retail sales in September and an accelerating pace of layoffs [2][3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to have another prosperous year in 2026, supported by many favorable driving factors such as the development of the innovation sector [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - On Thursday, the major indices in the two markets rose intraday and then fell back, closing slightly up or down. The total trading volume in the two markets was 170 million yuan, with little change. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,515 points, down 2 points or -0.05%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,972 points, up 1 point or 0.02%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,951 points, down 13 points or -0.20%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,257 points, up 9 points or 0.12% [1] - Among industry and thematic ETFs, the top gainers were the China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF, Chemical Industry ETF, Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF, Integrated Circuit ETF, and Science and Technology Innovation New Materials ETF. The top losers were the Film and Television ETF, Software ETF, and Game and Media ETF [1] - Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were the silicone concept, papermaking, forestry, POE film, and sodium - battery indices. The top losers were the film and television theater, fishery, e - commerce, cloud service, and cultivated diamond indices [1] - The CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 index futures saw net inflows of 1.6 billion, 1.5 billion, 1.2 billion, and 900 million yuan in sedimentary funds respectively [1] Important Information - Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document to promote consumption, encouraging platform companies to use AI technology to tap user needs and match and push products and services [1] - As of November 25, Hong Kong stock technology - related ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of 43.9 billion yuan in the past month, with 13 Hang Seng Technology ETFs attracting over 24 billion yuan [1] - Li Auto's CTO stated that the company's self - designed M100 AI inference chip is undergoing large - scale system testing and is expected to be commercialized next year, with a performance - to - cost ratio more than three times that of current high - end chips [1] - The Fed's economic beige book reported that government shutdowns and AI applications led to a weak employment market, and rising tariffs and medical insurance costs pushed up corporate spending, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns [1] - BofA predicted that the AI data center market will grow five - fold to over $1.2 trillion by 2030. Even if NVIDIA's market share drops from 85% to 75%, its absolute earnings will still grow explosively [2] - Multiple tech companies warned of a potential shortage of memory chips in 2026 due to surging demand from AI infrastructure construction, and consumer electronics manufacturers issued potential price - hike warnings [2] - Wenyuanzhixing launched a fully driverless service in Abu Dhabi, attracting global attention in the autonomous driving industry [2] - A MIT study found that AI can replace 11.7% of the US labor market, equivalent to a wage scale of $1.2 trillion in the finance, healthcare, and professional services sectors [2] - During this year's Black Friday, US consumers shifted their shopping focus from discounted big - ticket items to daily necessities, with 85% of consumers expecting tariffs to raise prices [2] - The UK Labour Party proposed a high - tax budget, with the tax burden reaching 38% of GDP, which initially received market welcome but also raised questions about government governance [2] - JPMorgan predicted that Brent crude prices may fall to $30 per barrel in 2027, and Goldman Sachs advised investors to short crude oil immediately, expecting the average WTI crude price to drop to $53 in 2026 [2] Market Logic - The Thursday's intraday rise and subsequent fall of the major indices in the two markets were normal technical movements, and the direction of oscillatory recovery remained unchanged. The launch of the 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs is expected to bring incremental funds [2] - Alibaba is making efforts in both AI to B and AI to C directions, and Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI life entrance [2] - In the first 10 months of this year, the total amount of overseas funds flowing into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the $11.4 billion in 2024. The Chinese technology sector has become one of the main destinations for foreign capital [2] - Morgan Stanley predicted that the Chinese stock market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026 [2] - NVIDIA's CEO said that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2][3] Future Outlook - The major indices' intraday rise and subsequent fall on Thursday were normal technical movements, and the direction of oscillatory recovery remained unchanged. There is unlikely to be an AI bubble in the next three years [3] - Google needs to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet the growing AI service demand [3] - Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 80% [3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to have another good year in 2026, supported by favorable factors [3] - For futures trading, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index for range trading [3] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, with the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December rising to over 80%, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index for range trading [3] - For stock index option trading, as the stock index enters an oscillatory recovery period, investors should observe investment opportunities in out - of - the - money long - term call options [3]