Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main theme. The medium - to long - term approach for the index is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is currently in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metal prices are expected to oscillate. Some metals have strong price support due to supply - demand relationships, while others may face downward pressure due to factors such as over - supply or weak demand [12][14][16]. - The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand later [33]. - The prices of most energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate. Some products may have short - term upward or downward trends due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost fluctuations [54][55]. - The prices of most agricultural products are expected to oscillate. Some products may face downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term upward potential due to factors such as production reduction expectations [73][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: There are over 150 humanoid robot enterprises in China, and the NDRC encourages the development of new energy storage and hydrogen energy technologies. OPEC+ may reach an agreement on a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. JPMorgan Chase has upgraded the rating of A - shares to "overweight" [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After recent declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. The long - term approach is to go long on dips, with technology growth as the main theme [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had positive changes. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The NDRC has arranged special treasury bonds for "two major" construction projects. The central bank conducted a net injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In October, the economic data on both the supply and demand sides were weak. The growth rate of social financing may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank is maintaining an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and COMEX gold and silver prices also had certain trends. The market is mainly concerned about the Fed's subsequent personnel changes and monetary policy expectations. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is 86.9% [7][8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and the RMB has slightly depreciated. LME copper prices have declined, and domestic copper inventories have decreased. The import loss of domestic copper has widened [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The probability of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is high, but there are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 86,200 - 87,800 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices have corrected. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have decreased, and LME aluminum inventories have also decreased [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and the price support is strong. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The price may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,400 - 21,700 yuan/ton [14]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories have certain trends, and the import loss of zinc ingots is relatively large [15][16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc ore imports declined significantly in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. However, it is expected to loosen marginally after stockpiling. The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME lead inventories have certain trends, and the import profit of lead ingots is relatively small [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the export of lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to decline at a slower pace in the short term [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron have certain trends, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is expected to increase [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [18]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The inventory has increased slightly [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2605 contract also declined [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Domestic production has declined, and inventory has decreased. There are differences in the market's expectations for next year's demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 91,200 - 99,600 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose slightly. The price of overseas ore has declined, and the inventory of futures has decreased [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting industry has an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract declined. The prices of spot and raw materials remained stable, and the inventory decreased [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The spot market price is stable, and the sales of 300 - series stainless steel are relatively good. However, the consumption in related fields is weak, and the inventory removal speed is slow. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the inventory in factories increased [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The prices of spot rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously removed. The production of hot - rolled coils has increased, and the inventory removal is slow. The export of steel to South Korea may be affected. Steel prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The price of spot iron ore and the basis have certain trends [34]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overseas shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The inventory of iron ore is relatively high, and the price is expected to oscillate. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline in the short term [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda - ash main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is increasing, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand for glass is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply of soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The prices of spot manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon also decreased [39]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The risk appetite of the market has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have declined. However, the expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of industrial - silicon futures rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of polysilicon futures declined, and the inventory increased [43][45]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The production of industrial silicon is declining, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate. The production of polysilicon is declining, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's rubber - producing areas is a positive factor, but the subsequent rainfall has decreased. The inventory of exchange - traded RU is low [48]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. It is recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures rose. The US EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and some refined oils has increased [53]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the supply of OPEC has not increased significantly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [54]. Methanol - Market Information: The price of methanol futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot methanol also increased [55]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The potential positive factors of Iran's plant shutdown have been realized, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate after the positive factors are realized [55]. Urea - Market Information: The price of urea futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot urea also increased [56]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of urea is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is relatively high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure - benzene futures remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The price of styrene futures declined, and the basis decreased [57]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of styrene is under pressure, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily [58]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC futures rose, and the basis decreased. The cost of PVC remained stable, and the inventory increased [59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of PVC is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of ethylene glycol remained unchanged [61]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation may slow down. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [62]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PTA decreased [63]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short term. The processing fee of PTA has limited upward space, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [64]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The price of PX futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PX increased [65]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The load of PX remains high, and the inventory is difficult to continuously remove. The valuation of PX is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PE decreased [67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It is recommended to short the LL - 1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP futures rose, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PP decreased [69]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally oscillating. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported after the supply - over - supply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The market demand is increasing slowly, and the supply of hogs is abundant [72]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The theoretical supply of hogs is still large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse - spread trading [73]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average [74]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The egg - price futures have rebounded in advance, but the spot price has not followed up as expected. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct reverse - spread trading in the near - term and far - term contracts, and short on rallies in the medium term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean market was closed due to a holiday. The domestic soybean - meal price was stable, and the inventory increased [76]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global supply of soybeans has decreased, and the domestic soybean inventory is at a high level. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - Market Information: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and the production has increased. The domestic oil price rebounded [78]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The over - supply of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [79][80]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level [81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The global sugar supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [82]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The downstream spinning - mill operating rate decreased, and the global cotton production increased [83]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the market has digested the negative impact of high yields. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [84].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/11/28星期五-20251128
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-28 01:42