贵金属日评：美联储12月降息预期升温支撑贵金属价格-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, and geopolitical risks in multiple regions remain unresolved, which may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and the price may fluctuate on the strong side [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for palladium from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but the price may be cautiously strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - Futures: Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) had a closing price of 943.13 yuan/gram on November 27, 2025, up 1.96 yuan from the previous day and 20.45 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 352,583, with a decrease of 67,866 from the previous day and 79,224 from last week. The open interest was 195,755, an increase of 6,992 from the previous day and 35,445 from last week. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 90,423, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3 from last week [1]. - Spot: The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 941.17 yuan/gram on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 [1]. - International: COMEX gold futures had a closing price of 4,126.30 dollars/ounce on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 229,049, and the open interest was 232,736. The London gold spot price was 4,139.60 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 484.24 tons [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - Futures: Shanghai silver futures had a closing price of 12,227 yuan on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 1,827,650, and the open interest was 385,232. - Spot: The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 on November 26, 2025 [1]. - International: COMEX silver futures had a closing price of 53.76 dollars/ounce on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 83,948, and the open interest was 102,422. The London silver spot price was 51.21 dollars/ounce. The holdings of the iShare Silver ETF were 15,582.33 tons [1]. 3.1.3 Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was at 445 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 61.90 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 58.11 dollars/barrel on November 27, 2025 [1]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures were at 86,990 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was at 10,930 dollars/ton [1]. - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,875.2594, the S&P 500 was at 6,812.6100, the UK FTSE 100 was at 9,552.3000, etc. [1]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.12%, the 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.77%, the dollar index was 99.8123, the dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.0779 [1]. 3.2 Important News - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan for the first time, stating that there is no final plan yet and preparing for a "serious" discussion with the US next week. Currently, negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership have no practical significance [1]. - ECB official Kazaks warned that "it is too early to talk about rate cuts" and inflation risks still need to be vigilant [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - Gold and Silver: The negative growth of the US ADP private - sector weekly new employment and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Japan's economic stimulus plan has intensified its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal buffer space has increased, but there are concerns about future economic growth. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices [1]. - Platinum: On the supply side, factors such as high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, and recycled platinum production grows slowly. On the demand side, the increase in exhaust emission standards and positive demand expectations in multiple industries lead to a tight supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026, and the rising rate - cut expectation may push the price up [1]. - Palladium: On the supply side, mining issues affect production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the demand from other industries has low elasticity. The supply - demand outlook may shift from tight to loose, but the rate - cut expectation may keep the price cautiously strong [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Gold and Silver: It is advisable to go long on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 55 - 63 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 10,000 - 11,000 yuan and the resistance level is around 12,700 - 13,000 yuan [1]. - Platinum: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term or consider the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,260 - 1,460 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, the support level is around 325 - 377 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. - Palladium: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,080 - 1,280 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, the support level is around 320 - 350 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].