国泰君安期货所长早读-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's industrial profit data shows that in October, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, but the profit in the first 10 months increased by 1.9% year - on - year. Among the three major sectors, the mining industry decreased by 27.8%, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 9.5% in the first 10 months [7]. - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the copper market will be in a state of supply shortage, with a high premium for refined copper. The long - term trading strategy for copper is mainly long - position [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support [10]. - After the listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, there are still risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market structure, and the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the short - term due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine war situation [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. 3.1.2 Copper - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the long - term consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the global copper market will have a supply shortage of 150,000 tons. The long - term trading strategy is mainly long - position. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong view [8][9][25]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Zinc is in a state of weak shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][26]. 3.1.4 Lead - The inventory of lead has decreased, which supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][30]. 3.1.5 Tin - The supply of tin has been disturbed again. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][32]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum is in a state of range - bound shock; alumina rebounds from a low level; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][36]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - The inventory accumulation rhythm of nickel has slowed down, and it is affected by macro and news in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuate at a low level, but the downward space is limited. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][39]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - With the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and the less - than - expected inventory reduction, the price of carbonate lithium is under pressure. The trend strength is - 2, indicating a very bearish view [15][44]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon mainly fluctuates within a range. Polysilicon requires attention to the position of the 2512 contract. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [15][47][48]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - The downstream demand space for iron ore is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a weakly bearish view [15][51]. 3.1.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][53][54]. 3.1.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon fluctuates widely due to market sentiment disturbances, and silicomanganese fluctuates widely due to the firm price of ore. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][58]. 3.1.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][62]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Cotton - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis of spot cotton [10][15][18]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Other Oils - Palm oil has a technical rebound due to the weakening of high - yield marginal trading. Soybean oil mainly fluctuates within a range [18]. 3.2.3 Corn - Corn is in a state of shock and upward trend [18]. 3.2.4 Sugar - Sugar is in a state of range consolidation [18]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The increase in the number of culled hens provides expected support for egg prices [18]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The limit on positions drives the divergence between the near - term futures and spot prices of live pigs [18]. 3.2.7 Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the spot price of peanuts [18]. 3.3 Others 3.3.1 Logs - Logs are in a state of weak shock [18][64].