国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251128

Report Overview - Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The inventory accumulation pace has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from macro and news factors [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The approaching resumption of production by large manufacturers and the failure to meet de - stocking expectations are putting pressure on the upside [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2][12] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the position of the 2512 contract [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 116,900 yuan, down 360 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 97,221 lots, a significant decrease of 79,345 lots. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,410 yuan, down 45 yuan, and the trading volume was 186,323 lots, down 37,935 lots [4] - Macro and Industry News: Multiple events including the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, China's suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, and various regulatory policies in Indonesia have affected the market. Also, the Fed's dovish remarks have influenced market sentiment [4][5][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 94,000 yuan, down 500 yuan. The trading volume was 216,915 lots, a large decrease of 145,740 lots. The inventory decreased by 2452 tons compared to last week [9][11] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the production this week decreased slightly [9][10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 2, indicating a very bearish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2601 contract for industrial silicon was 9,115 yuan, up 95 yuan. The trading volume was 323,524 lots, down 45,701 lots. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,235 yuan, down 660 yuan [13] - Macro and Industry News: China Energy Construction's 2025 photovoltaic module centralized procurement project bid candidate was announced [13][15] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is - 1 (slightly bearish) [15]