白糖：价格跌至相对低位，博弈难度加大

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the current continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view remains bearish. However, as domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies and closing positions opportunistically after price drops [3][13]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Global and Domestic Sugar Production Forecast - Domestic: In the 2025/26 sugar season, the estimated total national sugar production is 1160 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44 million tons. Specifically, Guangxi's sugar production is expected to be 680 million tons, an increase of 30 million tons; Yunnan's is 260 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons; Guangdong's is 60 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; Inner Mongolia's is 70 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons; and Xinjiang's is 76 million tons, a decrease of 5.5 million tons [5]. - India: The estimated total sugar production (including sugar - to - ethanol production) in the 2025/26 sugar season is 3435 million tons, with a net sugar production of 3095 million tons after 340 million tons are used for ethanol production [6]. - Thailand: The estimated sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season is 1100 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 95 million tons [6]. - Brazil: As of the second half of October in the 2025/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region is 3808.5 million tons, an increase of 61.1 million tons compared to the same period last year [6]. - Global: The ISO predicts that in the 2025/26 sugar season, global sugar production will grow by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only grow by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 1.63 million tons, compared to a deficit of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 sugar season [7]. Sugar Price Analysis - Due to stricter import controls on syrups and premixes since mid - October and the continuous decline of the external market price, the domestic out - of - quota spot import profit reached over 900 yuan/ton in early November. Subsequently, with the start of the new sugar season in Guangxi and the increase in sugar imports in October, short - term supply increased, market sentiment weakened, and Zhengzhou sugar prices fell continuously. Recently, the external market price has stopped falling, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is at a relatively low level, making further downward betting less cost - effective [13]. - The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere sugar - producing countries that are starting to crush. Unless the actual production of major Northern Hemisphere producers is significantly lower than the estimated value, the upward space for international sugar prices will be under pressure in the short term [13].