工业硅：区间震荡为主，多晶硅：关注2512合约持仓

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is expected to mainly experience range - bound fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the positions of the 2512 contract of polysilicon [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: - For industrial silicon Si2601, the closing price is 9,115 yuan/ton, with changes of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1, - 40 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 160 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 323,524 lots, down 45,701 lots from T - 1, down 250,821 lots from T - 5, and up 62,437 lots from T - 22. The open interest is 237,648 lots, down 22,881 lots from T - 1, down 36,330 lots from T - 5, and up 25,978 lots from T - 22 [2]. - For polysilicon PS2601, the closing price is 55,235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan from T - 1 and up 2,785 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume is 324,070 lots, down 6,246 lots from T - 1 and up 19,235 lots from T - 5. The open interest is 141,586 lots, down 1,457 lots from T - 1 and up 7,294 lots from T - 5 [2]. - Price and Basis: - Industrial silicon spot prices vary by region. For example, Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,900 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 52,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of industrial silicon and polysilicon also shows different trends. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 435 yuan/ton [2]. - Profit: - Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2,154.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3,401 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - Inventory: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 550,000 tons, with an increase of 2,000 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8,000 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) is 180,000 tons, with an increase of 1,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) is 730,000 tons, with an increase of 3,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 3,900 tons compared to T - 22. The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt inventory is 198,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from T - 1, down 14,000 tons from T - 5, and down 42,000 tons from T - 22. The polysilicon factory inventory is 281,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 20,000 tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - Raw Material Cost: - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided. For example, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, 2025, the list of winning bidders for the 2025 photovoltaic module centralized procurement project of China Energy Engineering Group Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The total scale of the tender is estimated to be 17GW, divided into 8 bid packages, covering 182mm TOPCon modules, 210mm TOPCon modules, HJT modules, and BC modules [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].