Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, leading to a weakening of oil prices. The supply of crude oil is in surplus during the off - season, and the pressure on oil prices is increasing. For various energy - related products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [1][9]. - For different chemical products, their market conditions vary. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost fluctuations and macro - policies [1][23]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. Brent rose 0.53%, and SC rose 0.52%. As of November 26, the US crude oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 [7][8]. - Basic logic: In the off - season, crude oil supply is in surplus, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The recent easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation has also put downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - Strategy recommendation: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [445 - 455] [11]. LPG - Market performance: On November 27, the PG main contract closed at 4269 yuan/ton, up 0.23% month - on - month. The downstream chemical demand has certain resilience, and the inventory has improved [12][13]. - Basic logic: The price trend is anchored to the cost - end crude oil, and the oil price trend is downward. The downstream chemical demand has support, but the recent high basis indicates over - valuation of the futures price [14]. - Strategy recommendation: Do not chase the rise. Go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - Market performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, and the futures price was in a premium structure [17][18]. - Basic logic: Domestic production has seasonally recovered, and the supply is still sufficient. The downstream start - up rate has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, and the demand support is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium - term, and the cost support is weak [19]. - Strategy recommendation: Reduce short positions at low absolute prices. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of L [6650 - 6800] [19]. PP - Market performance: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was in a premium structure [21][22]. - Basic logic: The cost - end is weak, and the upper - middle - stream inventory is at a high level. The internal and external demand support is insufficient, and there is a high pressure on inventory reduction in the future. The oil price may continue to decline in the medium - term [23]. - Strategy recommendation: Reduce short positions at low absolute prices. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - Market performance: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis was repaired, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from a high level [24][25]. - Basic logic: In the short - term, the trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and the social inventory remains high. However, the low valuation provides support, and the decline space of the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position transfer [26]. - Strategy recommendation: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [26]. PTA - Market performance: The processing fee is generally low, and the supply - side pressure has been alleviated. The downstream demand is relatively good, but the cost - end PX may follow the decline of crude oil [27][28]. - Basic logic: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease due to low processing fees and high - intensity device maintenance. The downstream demand is relatively good, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4680] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The domestic start - up load has continued to decline, and the overseas device load has slightly increased. The downstream demand is relatively good, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [29][30]. - Basic logic: The domestic start - up load is decreasing, and new device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is relatively good, but the weaving orders are slightly weakening [30]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3820 - 3880] [31]. Methanol - Market performance: The Taicang spot price has stabilized, and the port basis has slightly strengthened. The inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the past five years [34]. - Basic logic: The domestic and overseas device loads have increased, and the supply pressure is large. The demand has improved month - on - month, and the cost - end has weak support. The fundamentals remain weak [34]. - Strategy recommendation: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - Market performance: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stopped falling, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is cold domestically and hot overseas [37][38]. - Basic logic: The supply pressure is still high before the gas - head enterprises' maintenance in December. The domestic agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is relatively good. The inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level [38][39]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1635 - 1675] [40]. Natural Gas - Market performance: On November 26, the NG main contract closed at 4.558 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.72% month - on - month [42][43]. - Basic logic: The recent easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has put downward pressure on gas prices, but the demand has entered the consumption peak season, providing certain support [44]. - Strategy recommendation: The demand has support, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - Market performance: On November 27, the BU main contract closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month. The profit has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [47][48]. - Basic logic: The price is mainly affected by the cost - end crude oil. The supply is expected to decrease in December, and the demand has increased slightly this week [49]. - Strategy recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. Glass - Market performance: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the demand is weak [52][53]. - Basic logic: The daily melting volume has decreased and remains at 15.82 tons. The demand support is insufficient due to the weak real - estate market [54]. - Strategy recommendation: Close short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [54]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The demand has weakened, and the futures price is in a consolidation state [55]. - Basic logic: Some devices have been overhauled or reduced production, and the demand has decreased. The supply will remain in a loose pattern in the long - term [6]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term [6].
中辉能化观点-20251128
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-28 01:59