LLDPE：基差转正，供应仍宽松

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The raw material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE market fluctuates at a low level, the downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but the downstream's willingness to hold goods has weakened after the recent decline, the upstream mainly maintains prices, the factory inventory accumulates passively, and the basis strengthens slightly. The supply side has no major near - term contradictions, but medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6699, with a daily decline of 0.12%, the trading volume was 393,483, and the position decreased by 1,873 [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 01 contract was 41 yesterday (43 the day before), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 64 yesterday (- 61 the day before) [1] - Spot Price Data: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,740 yuan/ton, 6,900 yuan/ton, and 7,030 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, with North China and South China prices decreasing compared to the day before [1] Spot News - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated. The basis of North China LL gradually recovered to a slight premium, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, and downstream buyers were not very active. The US and Middle East offers decreased, and the shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but the downstream's willingness to hold goods has weakened after the recent decline. The upstream mainly maintains prices, the factory inventory accumulates passively, and the basis strengthens slightly. The supply side has no major near - term contradictions, but medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]