生猪：限仓驱动近端期现背离

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core View - The report focuses on the divergence between the near - end futures and spot prices of live pigs driven by position limits, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong are 11,380 yuan/ton, 11,450 yuan/ton, and 11,560 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 200 yuan/ton [2] - Futures Prices: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,585 yuan/ton, 11,315 yuan/ton, and 11,990 yuan/ton respectively. The year - on - year changes are +45 yuan/ton, - 50 yuan/ton, and - 70 yuan/ton [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 58,481 lots, 22,433 lots, and 14,223 lots respectively, with decreases of 34,380 lots, 19,534 lots, and 8,112 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 117,322 lots, 128,243 lots, and 71,756 lots respectively, with changes of - 10,736 lots, +3,627 lots, and +2,624 lots compared to the previous day [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are - 205 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and - 610 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 95 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and +20 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts 1 - 3 and 3 - 5 are 270 yuan/ton and - 675 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of +95 yuan/ton and +20 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, within the range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]