国新国证期货早报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 27, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 3875.26, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44% to 3031.30. The trading volume of the two markets was 1709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300: It closed at 4515.40, a decrease of 2.22 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Energy Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1652.3, a rise of 0.3. Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Supply increased as coking enterprises' costs improved, and demand was weak as steel mills' profitability was poor and maintenance expanded [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1114.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.6. Prices in some regions changed, with Shanxi's main coking coal down 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton. Supply recovered as coal mines resumed production, and there was pressure on coal mine shipments [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2601 contract rose slightly due to factors such as the rebound of US sugar and short - covering. The 2025/26 global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the largest since 2017/18. Brazil's sugarcane production is expected to be 659 million tons, and the Philippines' raw sugar production is expected to be 2.09 million tons [4]. - Rubber: Affected by Thailand's weather warning and potential output loss of up to 90,000 tons, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly. Global light - vehicle sales showed growth in October [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2601 contract rose 0.39% to 11585 yuan/ton. The supply was strong due to high - level sow inventory and concentrated slaughter, while demand was weak, and the market was in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern [6]. - Soybean Meal: The M2601 contract rose 1.33% to 3055 yuan/ton. The US soybean market was closed on November 27. China's soybean purchases from the US were close to 2 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting rate was 81%, lower than last year. Domestic supply improved, and the futures price had limited upward drive [6]. - Palm Oil: The P2601 contract rose 1.04% to 8528. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were estimated to be 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the previous month [6]. 2.3. Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2601 contract rose 0.35% to 86990 yuan/ton. Supply was tight due to factors such as smelter maintenance and mine accidents, and demand was strong in new - energy and other fields. However, high prices and potential factors might limit the increase [6][7]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract closed at 13710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 65 lots, and the purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.18 yuan/kg [7]. - Logs: The 2601 contract closed at 765, with an increase of 106 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and imports [7]. - Iron Ore: The 2601 contract rose 0.44% to 799.5 yuan. Shipping volume decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. The price was in a volatile trend [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan. December's production plan decreased, inventory was being reduced, and demand was in the off - season, with prices in a volatile state [7]. - Steel: The rb2601 closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3293 yuan/ton. Production and consumption decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern [7]. - Alumina: The ao2601 closed at 2720 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections affected the north, inventory increased slightly, and the market was sluggish [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2601 closed at 21500 yuan/ton. The macro - market sentiment improved, but demand was cautious. Supply was stable, and social inventory continued to decrease [7][8].