农产品早报2025-11-28：五矿期货农产品早报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [6][9]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - Cotton: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - Eggs: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean and Soybean Meal - Market Information: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans were closed for a holiday. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were mostly flat, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, and last week's was 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.25 days to 7.98 days. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year. Soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons [2]. - Strategy: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Palm Oil - Market Information: From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared with the previous month, while production increased. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, lower than the same period last year and August this year. On Thursday, domestic oils continued to rebound, and foreign capital reduced short positions in palm oil [6]. - Strategy: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [9]. Sugar - Market Information: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Spot prices were stable. The new sugar - making season is expected to see a global supply surplus of 3.7 million tons, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year [11]. - Strategy: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - Market Information: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. The spot price index rose. Spinning mill operating rates decreased slightly, and commercial cotton inventories increased year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 520,000 tons [14]. - Strategy: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.03 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream digestion was average, with some improvement in local areas [16]. - Strategy: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly fell, with slight increases in some areas. Market demand increased slowly, and supply was abundant. Slaughter enterprises still had the intention to suppress prices [19]. - Strategy: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [20].