Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Red dates: Oscillating with a weak bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating (Natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, Synthetic rubber) [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar market fundamentals have limited news, with new sugar gradually entering the market and general trading atmosphere. Technically, the short - term trend has improved, but there is pressure near the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands. Consider short - term trading strategies such as holding or partially closing SR601 short positions and buying put options [1]. - Red dates: After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend of red date futures prices weakens. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. Continue to be bearish and adopt a strategy of short - selling on upward rebounds [3]. - Rubber: Natural rubber has long - short factors intertwined. Supply - side support exists as domestic production areas enter the off - season and Southeast Asian weather is unstable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental contradictions with stable raw material supply and general downstream demand. Pay attention to price ranges for different rubber varieties [4]. Group 3: Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.45% daily, and 5411 yuan/ton at night. SR605 contract closed at 5325 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.30% daily, and 5335 yuan/ton at night [1]. Important Information - The external market was closed yesterday with no quote. - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi rose by 9 yuan/ton to 5397 yuan/ton. New sugar in Guangxi was priced at 5580 - 5650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's sugar prices were also given. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 20 sugar mills have started crushing, 25 less than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 146,000 tons, 260,500 tons less than last year. - It is estimated that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, up 14.9% year - on - year, and sugar production will be 1.075 million tons, up 18.9% year - on - year. - As of November 23, 2025/26 in India's Maharashtra state, 154 sugar mills have started crushing, 34 more than the same period last year, with 15.177 million tons of cane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced. - StoneX predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be 620.5 million tons, and sugar production will be 41.5 million tons, up 3.3% from the 2025/26 season. - Yesterday, the number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 75, a decrease of 7618 from the previous day [1]. Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar was closed yesterday with no quote. - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar rose slightly. Technically, short - covering has improved the trend, and short - term pressure at the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands should be noted [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close SR601 short positions, close profitable call - selling options at 5600, close profitable bear - spread combinations, and consider buying put options [1]. Red Dates Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 9150 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.11% daily. CJ605 contract closed at 9295 yuan/ton, up 0.05% daily [3]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample warehouses this week was 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week, a 5.01% increase. - In the Hebei market, the price of extra - grade red dates was 9.83 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day. - In the Guangzhou Ruyifang market, 4 trucks of red dates arrived, a decrease of 3 trucks from the previous day [3]. Market Logic - The red - date acquisition in some areas of Xinjiang is completed, and the acquisition in other main producing areas is in the second half. The price in the Hebei sales area has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend weakens, but there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close CJ601 short positions and short - sell CJ605 on rebounds [3]. Rubber Market Review - RU2601 contract closed at 15,280 yuan/ton on November 27, up 0.56% daily. NR2601 contract closed at 12,205 yuan/ton, up 0.33% daily. BR2601 contract closed at 10,400 yuan/ton, up 0.39% daily [4]. Important Information - The average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex rubber was 14,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1835 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton. - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons from the previous period, a 3.60% increase. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points from the previous week and 13.64 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous week and 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. - In October 2025, Thailand's natural - rubber exports to the world were 409,700 tons, a 15.71% increase from the previous month and an 8.88% increase from the same period last year. - The delivery price in the central Shandong region was 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton. - This week, the mainstream sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The domestic production area has entered the off - season, and the raw - material price is stable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. - Synthetic rubber: The fundamental contradictions of BR futures prices are limited, with sufficient raw - material supply and cautious downstream buying. The cost support is neutral, and the price is unlikely to rise significantly [4]. Trading Strategy - The short - term activity range of the RU main contract is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract is 12,100 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the BR is 10,200 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4].
格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20251128
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-11-28 02:12