国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251128

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: In a range - bound adjustment [2]. - Copper: High expectations for long - term contract premiums support prices [2]. - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Trading within a range [2]. - Alumina: Rebounding from a low level [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed, with short - term macro and news - based disturbances [2]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, Comex gold 2512 had a 0.74% daily increase, and SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5 to 1045.43. For silver, Comex silver 2512 rose 3.88%, and SLV silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15582.33. The inventories of both decreased [4]. - Macro and Industry News: OPEC+ will maintain the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, and Putin will discuss the peace plan with the US [4][7]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 0 [6]. Copper - Fundamentals: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.46%, and LME copper 3M electronic trading decreased 0.21%. The global refined copper market had a 5.1 - million - ton deficit in September, and the market is expected to face a 15 - million - ton shortage in 2026 [8][10]. - Macro and Industry News: China's industrial enterprise profits in October decreased 5.5% year - on - year, and the cost - determination meeting for price competition was held [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.27%, and LME zinc 3M electronic trading increased 1.85%. The inventory situation was mixed [11]. - News: The ECB official warned that it's too early to discuss interest rate cuts, and the cryptocurrency winter may threaten the financial market [12]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - Fundamentals: The Shanghai lead main contract decreased 0.64%, and LME lead 3M electronic trading decreased 0.40%. The inventories of both decreased [15]. - News: China's industrial enterprise profits in October decreased 5.5% year - on - year, and relevant regulatory meetings were held [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - Fundamentals: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.20%, and LME tin 3M electronic trading increased 1.05%. Spot prices increased [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The US consumer spending decreased, and China promoted the development of new business forms [18]. - Trend Intensity: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 45, alumina rebounded from a low level, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. Various indicators such as inventory and price differentials changed [21]. - Comprehensive News: The price - competition cost - determination meeting was held, and China's industrial enterprise profits in October decreased 5.5% year - on - year [23]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The Shanghai nickel main contract decreased 360, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased 45. The pace of nickel inventory accumulation slowed [24]. - Macro and Industry News: There were issues with Indonesian nickel mines, and Fed officials made dovish remarks [24][27]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [28].