黑色建材日报：市场情绪持稳，盘面区间震荡-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No Rating Provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is stable, and the market is oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, and the steel mills' profitability is declining. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has eased, but the market sentiment is weak. The supply of thermal coal is tightening at the end of the month, and the price is oscillating [1][2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3293 yuan/ton. Rebar's production, sales, and inventory all declined, and destocking was in line with the season. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, while inventory and demand decreased, and high inventory still suppressed the market [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After weeks of destocking, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has been well alleviated. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has narrowed significantly. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Building material demand may weaken later, which may drag down plates [1]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 119.1 million tons, a 15.30% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 143.0 million tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous day. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.60 million tons from the previous week [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week, port inventories continued to rise, and the average daily hot - metal output decreased slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has intensified. The profitability of steel mills has been declining, and downstream steel mills have started to cut production. Some iron ore inventories are locked due to non - market factors, and if these factors are removed, the iron ore price will face great pressure [2]. - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts. For coking coal, supply disturbances were frequent, and the online auction failure rate was high. The import of Mongolian coal resumed normal traffic, and the market sentiment was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal weakly stable at around 1000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coking coal, the supply remained tight, the market was pessimistic about future prices, speculative purchases were insufficient, and inventories accumulated at mines, ports, and steel mills. With the weakening of terminal demand in the off - season, coal prices were still under pressure in the short term. For coke, the production of steel mills and independent coking plants increased rapidly this week, inventories in each link except ports increased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The fundamental contradiction has eased, and the coke price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [5]. - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, coal prices oscillated. Near the end of the month, the supply of some coal mines tightened, which supported prices. The shipments of large terminal operators and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgical and chemical industries was active. However, affected by port price cuts, the sales of some coal mines were not smooth, and the wait - and - see sentiment spread. At ports, the market sentiment weakened, and downstream procurement demand was cold. Northern port inventories accumulated rapidly, and the pressure on traders to sell increased. The import bid price of coal decreased, and the market expectation was not good [7]. - Demand and Logic: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices have oscillated. In the long - term, the supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. - Strategy: No strategy provided [7].